Editor's Note
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood recently appeared on The Rollup, where she provided a clear Bitcoin price prediction: $730,000 under a base scenario by 2030, $1.5 million in a bull market scenario. She stated that the current phase is a bottom-building phase, with on-chain analysis indicating an absolute bottom in the range of $50,000 to $55,000.
She also put forward a macro view that the market has overlooked, highlighting that AI training costs are decreasing by 75% annually, while inference costs are dropping by 85%-95% each year. This will lead to a round of "good deflation," with the core inflation rate measured by Trueflation (a blockchain-based real-time inflation index) having dropped to 1.3%. The high likelihood of the Federal Reserve being forced to pivot to accommodative measures is seen as a catalyst for the next wave of the digital asset bull market. Additionally, she revealed that ARK's crypto research team has compressed quarterly report production time by 75% using Claude Co-work and believes that the payment layer of Agentic AI will inevitably be built on blockchain technology.
Key Quotes
Bitcoin Pricing and Cycle Analysis
· "Our base case prediction is that Bitcoin will reach $730,000 by 2030, and $1.5 million in a bull market scenario."
· "A 50% drop is not a bear market; compared to the previous drops of 85% to 95%, this is child's play."
· "Our on-chain analyst David Puell says the absolute bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000. But I doubt it will go that low."
· "The correlation between gold and Bitcoin is only 0.14. In the past two cycles, gold has always started its rally before Bitcoin, and this time is no different."
Stablecoins and DeFi Evolution
· "Both CZ and I agree that the biggest surprise from Bitcoin's early days to now has been the rise of stablecoins."
· "Ironically, the delay of the CLARITY Act has given Tether and Circle more time to enjoy network effects."
· "We originally thought Bitcoin would take on the role that stablecoins are now playing, especially in emerging markets. However, stablecoins have become the bridge from traditional finance to DeFi."
Turning Point for Institutional Adoption
· "Larry Fink's transformation has been profound. He finally understands that the internet has never had a financial layer, and tokenization can provide that layer. His shift has provided industry-wide endorsement - if he says it's important, I better learn about it too."
· "When we first bought Bitcoin in 2015, we were ridiculed, with many thinking it was just a marketing gimmick. This collective mockery only made me more convinced that we were on the right track."
Macroeconomics and Deflationary Logic
· "The federal funds rate has been cut by 175 basis points, yet the market narrative still says the Fed is too hawkish."
· "AI training costs decrease by 75% annually, while inference costs drop by 85% to 95% each year. We will witness a huge wave of benign deflation."
Intersection of Agentic AI and Blockchain
· "In the future, we will have a bunch of chatbots working for us. We'll have to pay Claude, pay the bots providing data. It's all machine-to-machine, and blockchain payment systems are the only rational infrastructure."
· "Our crypto team uses Claude Co-work for quarterly reports, cutting production time by 75%. All this saved time is now devoted to in-depth research."
ARK's Big Five Innovation Platforms
Robbie: You have five innovation platforms, yielding 15 technologies, and now these technologies are converging. Before we delve into the world of digital assets and public chains, could you give us a macro view first - how do you see the topic of disruptive innovation?
Cathie Wood: All the things happening today had their seeds planted early in my career. In the '80s and '90s, I watched those seeds being sown. But cloud computing didn't truly emerge until AWS launched in 2006. It was then that I tried to explain to investors and advisors what cloud computing was, and to them, it was completely far-fetched. The big breakthrough for AI also had to wait until the deep learning of 2012, and the Transformer architecture of 2017 (which later gave birth to ChatGPT and natural language programming).
In the late 1990s, the situation was that there was too much capital chasing too few opportunities, and it was all too early. But today, the situation is completely reversed. There are five innovation platforms, 15 technologies ready to go, yet investors are full of fear. As a fund manager, I prefer to operate in this environment rather than during the craziness of the bubble era.
Today's valuations are much lower than during the bubble era, the technology is ready, and most importantly, the pace of cost decline is astonishing, meaning these technologies can reach a broader array of industries and individuals.
I founded ARK in 2014 because following the bursting of the internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, institutional investors became extremely risk-averse. The entire industry shifted towards passive investing, driving the massive growth of ETFs. Even in the active management space, fund managers heavily relied on benchmark indices to screen targets. But we do not do that; our screening criteria are based on original research.
Traditional financial research teams are divided by industry, such as five consumer analysts, five healthcare analysts, etc. But we believe that to truly grasp innovation, the research team must be organized around those 15 technologies because these technologies will cut across all industries.
Robbie: Why are investors so afraid? Is it because they have not untangled the organizational structure to understand the convergence of these technologies?
Cathie Wood: This convergence is indeed confusing. Tesla is the best example. Most research directors handed Tesla to auto analysts, but it should have been handed to tech analysts, more specifically, a team of three collaborating analysts: robotics analyst, energy storage analyst, and AI analyst. Giving it to experts in internal combustion engines and human-driven vehicles is off the mark; we are transitioning from the old world to electrification and autonomous driving.
AI is evolving rapidly, simultaneously impacting many industries, which is an experience of upheaval in itself. Research directors need time to think about how to reorganize. They need to allocate people according to technological directions while fostering a collaborative culture. In traditional institutions, if a stock is assigned to an auto analyst, no one else can touch it. This model must change because technology is converging, and analysts must collaborate to understand the potential of these companies.
Cryptocurrency Allocation Logic
Robbie: We also see a lot of tribalism in the crypto industry, with the narrative of digital assets clearly starting from Bitcoin. When you founded ARK in 2014, Bitcoin was still finding its footing. How did you view Bitcoin back then? Was it already suitable for institutional allocation?
Cathie Wood: Back then, it wasn't ready yet. I actually started looking into and discussing Bitcoin at my previous company out of pure curiosity. I brought the most Bitcoin-obsessed analyst to ARK, who is now our Chief Futurist, Brett Winton.
When we founded ARK in 2014, we only had four innovation platforms and merged AI and blockchain into a category called "Next Generation Internet," which is also where our fund ARK got its name. At that time, AI was just experiencing a breakthrough in deep learning, still very nascent, and blockchain got us more excited, but we were not sure if it was worth standing on its own.
In 2015, we collaborated with Art Laffer (the creator of the Laffer Curve, a monetary economist who studied under Nobel laureate Robert Mundell) to release the first Bitcoin whitepaper. The core question was: Could Bitcoin take on the three functions of money—medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account?
Art said to me at the time, "This is what I've been waiting for since the U.S. closed the gold window in 1971." I asked him how big this idea was, and he countered, "How big is the U.S. monetary base?" It was $4.5 trillion at the time, while Bitcoin's network value was only $6 billion. He was referring to the trillion-level. I made a personal investment right away.
We were seeking the best exposure for our clients and needed approval from the NYSE and SEC. We eventually found GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust). Bitcoin was $250 at the time. In the summer of 2015, during the Greek threat to exit the EU, we took our first position because we noticed that whenever there was such geopolitical news, Bitcoin surged. It could act as a risk asset and a hedge asset, playing different roles in different periods.
Robbie: Looking back at that era, the mainstream narrative was "Institutions are coming to buy our Bitcoin." Now it's 2026, and we have indeed seen the adoption of ETFs, stablecoins, tokenized assets, the explosion of permissioned blockchains, large institutions launching real products, the adoption by traditional institutions, and the integration of crypto-native culture and infrastructure, which is the biggest convergence in the digital asset space.
But an interesting phenomenon is: the crypto natives, those who should have had the most conviction, are now filled with apathy and internal disillusionment. Meanwhile, the incoming large institutions and corporations are more optimistic. How do you interpret this state?
Cathie Wood: Several things are happening at the same time. When we bought Bitcoin in 2015, we were truly ridiculed. Many people thought it was a marketing gimmick. When so many people are mocking you or treating you with disdain, I become even more interested.
Now the landscape is this: Bitcoin has the global monetary system track. In the DeFi space, Ethereum, Solana are leading, and Hyperliquid (a decentralized perpetual contract trading platform) is also taking shape.
On the institutional adoption front, I believe Larry Fink's transformation is a key turning point. He used to lead the charge in criticizing Bitcoin, but his transformation was extremely thorough. His transformation came from a vision, everything tokenized. He finally understood that the internet was built without a financial layer because at that time, no one thought there would be e-commerce and online investments. In the early days, it was just information exchange, and some even thought it was just gambling and illegal activities.
Fink's awakening gave the entire industry permission. Previously, we had to battle with him, Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan CEO). But after Fink's transformation, the industry's reaction was if he says this is important, we also need to learn quickly. And BlackRock has Aladdin (a technology platform serving the asset management industry), so if Fink says tokenization is important, then all asset management companies using Aladdin must follow suit.
Another crucial development for DeFi is the evolution of stablecoins. I just did a podcast with CZ (Changpeng Zhao, Binance founder) yesterday. We both agree that from the early days of Bitcoin to now, the biggest surprise is the rise of fiat-backed stablecoins. This was quite rebellious in the early crypto ecosystem. But now even Bitcoin OGs fully support it, with Tether's Giancarlo and Paolo being among the earliest OGs.
Stablecoins have become the bridge from traditional finance to DeFi. We originally thought Bitcoin would play this role, especially in emerging markets.
But even in emerging markets, the Bitcoin community also sees stablecoins as a humanitarian "transitional step" into the crypto world because most emerging market residents cannot withstand Bitcoin's volatility as they live on daily income. As their wealth grows, they will naturally transition from stablecoins to more investment varieties in the crypto ecosystem.
There is a big question, will stablecoins take it all? Network effects suggest yes. Ironically, the delay of the CLARITY Act has given Tether and Circle more time to accumulate network effects. CZ believes there will be a stablecoin explosion, and our team members Lorenzo, David, and Ray also think so. But whether there will be an explosion or not, everyone believes that ultimately it will all consolidate into the hands of a few winners.
Tokenization: Why It's the Core Narrative
Robbie: We've been discussing on the show how the tokenization wave started from non-speculative assets, then moved along the risk curve to government bonds, and is now talking about tokenizing stocks. You wrote in the Big Ideas 2026 report that the global tokenized asset market could exceed $11 trillion by 2030. My question is, as these assets move onto the chain, will they eventually fall into DeFi protocols? Where do you think the value will primarily accrue?
Cathie Wood: We tend to agree with your point of view. In the innovation space, there is often such a differentiation: pure-play new entrants act faster, more flexibly, and more creatively; traditional players embrace new technology to lower costs, enhance efficiency, and productivity. In the traditional camp, the most aggressive and far-sighted companies use this to integrate into the traditional market.
The best example is Walmart and Amazon. During the dot-com bubble, everyone thought traditional retail would be destroyed, indeed many boutique stores were eliminated, but Walmart built its online business (acquired Jet) using the internet, integrating the traditional retail space instead.
Amazon is a fast-growing giant, but both coexist. Now, Walmart is more aggressive in drone delivery than Amazon, as it has better relationships with the companies it partners with and regulators. Amazon was ahead of Walmart by several generations in drone technology, but made some mistakes in regulation, slowing it down.
The same applies to the crypto world. Traditional players are embracing this technology. JP Morgan is particularly interesting, Jamie Dimon is still the biggest bitcoin opponent in many ways, but he is letting the technology team and customer demand override his personal judgment.
On the pure-play side of DeFi, Ethereum, Solana, Hyperliquid, we are betting on them. We bought some DATs (Digital Asset Tokens) for our ETF, including Bitmine Immersion and Soulmate from the Solana ecosystem.
We know that too many DATs have been created, and there will inevitably be large-scale elimination. We disclose trades daily; you can see us gradually adding back positions while turning to Ethereum and Solana's pure-play exposure within the permissible limits. Some platform providers do not allow flagship funds to hold a Bitcoin ETF or Ethereum, Solana ETF, so we can only operate within restricted ranges.
DeFi is poised for explosive growth. The economic value distribution between Layer 1 and Layer 2 is still being played out, and we are closely watching. However, we are still optimistic about the "Big Four," especially now that WBTC can be moved to other platforms, including Bitcoin.
The "Beneficial Deflation" and the Current Macro Liquidity Situation
Robbie: People say we heard Cathie's long-term bullish view. But we are currently in a geopolitical turmoil. Stocks hit a new high yesterday, while Bitcoin is still hovering around $75,000. Raoul Pal tweeted that global liquidity is rising. How do you see the lag of the crypto market compared to stocks and commodities? What is your macro liquidity assessment?
Cathie Wood: I wrote a letter at the beginning of the year that included an asset class correlation matrix. Many people think that because we call Bitcoin "digital gold," it is highly correlated with gold, but that is not the case. From 2019 (when institutional interest started to heat up) until now, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin is only 0.14. However, if we look at the past two cycles, gold has always started moving before Bitcoin. We believe this time will be the same.
Bitcoin has indeed experienced a significant pullback compared to gold, but on a long-term trend line, the lows are rising. The Bitcoin bull market is still intact. A 50% drop? Compared to previous drops of 85% or 95%, this is a victory.
We believe Bitcoin will hit a new high in the next cycle. Many people don't believe it, but we have clearly stated in public records that under the base case scenario for 2030, it is $730,000, and under the bull market scenario, it is $1.5 million.
I have been criticized for saying that stablecoins are eroding some of Bitcoin's role. This has indeed happened in emerging markets, but people overlook the other side where gold is rising, indicating that Bitcoin's value storage role is also strengthening simultaneously. These two effects offset each other, and in fact, the positive impact from gold is stronger.
On-chain analysis shows that the absolute bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000. I don't think it will go there. Just look at how Bitcoin and other assets are performing now.
Regarding liquidity, many people only focus on the news that the Fed is unwilling to cut rates, but the federal funds rate has already been cut by 175 basis points. The market narrative says the Fed is too hawkish, but they have already been easing. I think inflation will be significantly lower than expected.
For example, Frito-Lay reduced prices by about 15% approximately three months ago and today announced that sales far exceeded expectations.
The low-inflation world operates on a decrease in price to increase demand. This is especially true in the tech sector, where AI training costs decrease by 75% annually, and AI inference costs (such as the cost of ChatGPT answering a question) decrease by 85% to 95% each year. We are witnessing a significant wave of benign deflation, where price reductions lead to a surge in sales volume, contributing to our expectation of an acceleration in real GDP growth.
Trueflation, an inflation index based on blockchain technology that tracks the real-time prices of tens of thousands of goods, indicates that even with oil price fluctuations considered, the consumer price inflation rate is 1.8%, with a core inflation rate of only 1.3%. Various inflation indicators have fluctuated between 2% and 3% over the past two to three years, but Trueflation data suggest that these figures are trending downwards.
If inflation does indeed trend downward, the Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more accommodative stance. Another reason for this is that although the overall unemployment rate is low, there is a specific impact on entry-level positions, where companies are not laying off workers but are also not hiring.
The youth unemployment rate for individuals aged 16-24 is at 8.5% (having peaked at 11%), indicating slack in the labor market. Wage growth is slowing down while productivity is accelerating. The Federal Reserve's accommodative stance is driven by the relative increase in money demand compared to supply, a direct outcome of the acceleration in actual economic growth. The Fed's mandate is to align with real economic growth.
Robbie: The new Federal Reserve Chair is about to take office, and recently, it was discovered that he has cryptocurrency funds in his investment portfolio. Do you believe that the Fed will recognize "benign deflation" and move towards a more accommodative stance? What impact will this have on digital assets? Is the four-year cycle still in effect, or could a dovish shift by the Fed accelerate the market?
Cathie Wood: It is worth noting the behavior of Bitcoin ETF holders. During this recent downturn, they remained quite steadfast. If you are an institutional investor just getting acquainted with this new asset class, hearing about the four-year cycle and then witnessing Bitcoin drop by 50% can be challenging.
For traditional asset managers, this represents a severe bear market, which also signifies an opportunity. We have indeed observed buying the dip behavior. Weak hands exited, but institutions that truly began to understand this asset class stepped in.
As for whether the four-year cycle is at play this time, I am uncertain. This is because we experienced a flash crash triggered auto-deleveraging.
The trigger was another round of tariff turbulence that set off a chain reaction. Binance experienced a software glitch, leading to auto-deleveraging. Those who thought they had hedged themselves across two trading platforms discovered that their hedging had failed entirely, resulting in losses totaling $280-300 billion. However, we believe that this washout has already occurred.
Perhaps institutional involvement is accelerating the four-year cycle. However, the bottom line is, as we are in the accumulation phase, liquidity improvements will drive the next major bull run.
Adding a more economic perspective: the current U.S. money supply growth rate is 4.9%, with nominal GDP at around 5%, a close match. But trade frictions may be slowing down the velocity of money circulation, which could dampen the actual impact of money supply growth. This variable needs to be closely monitored in the coming months.
AI Agents and the Scalable Integration of Blockchain
Robbie: You mentioned that institutional holders have not been selling. At the same time, each Bitcoin block reward halving reduces, with diminishing effects. We are down to the wire, but we cannot overlook integration. This has been the core theme you have been discussing.
Blockchain, cryptocurrency, tokenized assets, DeFi protocols—how do they merge with broader disruptive technologies? Where do blockchain and AI intersect in healthcare? Early on, there was excitement about putting health records on the chain, but now the industry has become highly financialized. Is this direction still viable?
Cathie Wood: Have you heard of Agentic AI? In the future, we will all have a bunch of chatbots working for us.
Our crypto team is a great example. We use Claude Co-work (a desktop AI collaboration tool launched by Anthropic) for reports. We release a Bitcoin report and a DeFi report every quarter. The Bitcoin report came out today.
We have compressed the time it takes to produce these lengthy reports (many charts) by 75%. And it will only get better. The productivity released allows us to conduct more in-depth research instead of spending time on administrative tasks.
Looking ahead, at some point, we will have robots automatically generate these reports. By then, we will need a payment system for Claude to pay the robots of other companies providing data. These will all be machine-to-machine transactions, what could be more suitable than an internet financial system (blockchain)? Removing traditional financial intermediaries is the key to truly unleashing this productivity.
Agentic Commerce is no different. I hate shopping, so in the future, I will have an AI shopping agent that understands my style, trained by my personal shopping advisor, Lillian, but the payment process must be built on the blockchain.
A transformation is also taking place in the healthcare sector. In drug discovery and clinical trials, we are seeing the emergence of human-less experiments, relying on DeFi and blockchain technology for peer-to-peer collaboration. They are called Self-driving Labs, and this is becoming a trend. In the future, Agentic AI combined with a blockchain payment ecosystem will become mainstream.
Robbie: Alright. Cathie, thank you for taking the time to chat with us today. We agree on many points, and I truly appreciate it. Wishing you a great day ahead as you continue to promote the belief in innovation, digital assets, and convergence.
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