In the previous article about the World Cup quarterfinals prediction, 6 AIs unanimously favored France, Spain, England, and Argentina to advance. After the four matches, with four semifinal tickets punched, not a single AI got it wrong.
France had the easiest path to the semifinals. Despite Mbappé missing a penalty kick, he later scored to help France eliminate Morocco 2-0. Spain once again staged a late victory, with Merino breaking the deadlock in the 88th minute to defeat Belgium 2-1. The other two matches went into extra time: Berne-Erm scored twice to help England stage a 2-1 comeback against Norway, while Argentina, playing with one player fewer against Switzerland, scored two late goals in extra time to narrowly advance with a 3-1 victory.
Similarly, to better participate in the semifinal prediction market, I once again consulted ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek, QWAI, and Grok, these 6 AI models, to predict the match results, scorelines, and whether the matches would go into extra time or a penalty shootout.
However, in the semifinals, the 6 AIs showed significant divergent predictions.
5 AIs unanimously predict France to defeat Spain 2-1, with only Gemini favoring Spain's advancement
The first match of this World Cup semifinal is France against Spain, scheduled for July 15 at 3 a.m. Beijing time. The PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that in the predict.fun "World Cup Semifinal France vs. Spain" prediction event, France's win probability is currently at 42%; a draw at 30%; Spain's win probability at 30%. Additionally, including extra time and penalties, France's advancement probability is 60%, and Spain's advancement probability is 40%.
These are the two most defensively solid teams in this World Cup. France hasn't conceded a goal since entering the knockout stage, and Spain has only seen their goal breached once in the entire tournament. However, the two teams achieve victories in completely different ways. Spain relies on ball possession and high pressing in the attacking third to control the rhythm, while France excels in rapid transitions, using the speed and individual skills of their front-line players to create direct threats.
Among the 6 AIs, ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek, and QWAI all choose France to advance. Additionally, the scoreline prediction given by the 5 models is all France 2-1 Spain. While Spain may enjoy more possession, the space behind the full-backs when they press high could be a vulnerability. Facing Mbappé, Dembélé, and Ollisso, France doesn't need prolonged periods of attack; they just need to capitalize on a few offensive transitions to have the opportunity to change the game instantly.
ChatGPT's assessment of the match process is more specific, predicting that France will score first through a counterattack, Spain will equalize in the second half, then continue to press forward, only to be caught out at the back by France for a late win. While Claude believes there is a possibility of the match going into extra time, he, like Grok, DeepSeek, and 千问, ultimately chose France to win 2-1 in regular time.
The only one to choose Spain is Gemini, forecasting a 1-1 draw between the two teams after 120 minutes, with Spain advancing through a penalty shootout. Gemini's judgment focuses not on whether Spain can out-attack France but on the belief that Spain can reduce the attacking transitions in the match through continuous ball possession, minimizing France's most significant threat of counterattacks.
As long as Spain does not concede early, the match has the opportunity to settle into its familiar rhythm. Although France boasts explosive players like Mbappé and Dembélé, facing Spain's midfield control makes it challenging to find much open space. Similarly, with France not conceding a single goal in the knockout stage, Spain will also find it difficult to score consecutively in open play. Therefore, Gemini's analysis suggests that the match may remain low-scoring for an extended period, with both sides seizing one opportunity each and then deadlocked all the way to a penalty shootout.
Hence, whether Gemini can be the only AI to predict Spain's advancement also becomes another significant highlight of this match. In contrast, the disagreement in the other semifinal is much more significant—England against Argentina, where 6 AIs failed to reach a consensus on the direction of advancement.
Eng vs Arg Advancement Prediction Split 50/50, with Disagreements on Extra Time and Even Penalty Kicks
The second semifinal of this World Cup is England against Argentina, scheduled for July 16 at 3 a.m. Beijing time. PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that according to predict.fun data, in regular time, England has a 37% chance of winning; a 33% chance of a draw; and Argentina has a 32% chance of winning. Furthermore, including extra time and penalties, England has a 55% chance of advancing, while Argentina has a 45% chance of advancing.
Compared to France and Spain, this match is more challenging to predict. Both teams played a full 120 minutes in the previous round. England staged a comeback in extra time against Norway, while Argentina only overcame Switzerland in the dying moments of extra time. Factors such as physical exertion, the form of key players, and the pace of the game could all influence the final outcome.
Regarding the predictions from the 6 AI models, Grok, DeepSeek, and 千问 support England; ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude favor Argentina.
Supporters of England value physicality, set pieces, and impact. Grok and DeepSeek both predict England to win 2:1 in regular time, while Thousand Whys gives a more aggressive prediction of 2:0. England's current attack is highly focused on Kane and Sterling. The duo have scored the vast majority of the team's goals, with Sterling particularly stepping up in the last two knockout rounds. According to these models, England can use high pressing, crosses, and set pieces to keep up the pressure and aim to finish the game within 90 minutes.
Argentinian supporters, on the other hand, have more faith in knockout stage experience. Gemini predicts Argentina to advance with a 2:1 victory in regular time, believing that Messi's playmaking and clutch abilities are still enough to decide this level of match. Claude's assessment is more conservative, suggesting that both sides are likely to engage in a low-scoring tug-of-war, with a possibility of a 1:1 draw in regular time. The probability of the match going into extra time is significantly higher than the first game, with the ultimate inclination towards Argentina advancing. ChatGPT, on the other hand, predicts the match going straight to a penalty shootout, envisioning a 1:1 draw in regular time as both teams refrain from pressing too aggressively during extra time. In the end, Argentina is predicted to eliminate England 4:3 on penalties, relying on Emiliano Martinez and their greater experience in penalty shootouts.
In the last round, AIs were highly aligned in their predictions for the semifinals, and ultimately, they all got it right. As we head into the semi-finals, the prediction results have turned into one "Consensus Match" and one "Divergence Match." Can France break through Spain's possession-based system, and will England and Argentina battle to a penalty shootout? Who should we trust more in their predictions this time?
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