Morgan Stanley forecasts China's humanoid robot shipments at 50,000 units and 100,000 units in 2026 and 2027, respectively; these are institutional forecasts, not order statistics from this survey.

On October 25, 2026, Morgan Stanley released its second annual China Humanoid Robot Corporate Survey. Compared with a year ago, corporate willingness to adopt remains relatively high, but the transition from demonstrations and pilots to scaled deployment will take longer.

The survey was conducted online in September 2026, covering 94 Chinese corporate executives directly involved in robot investment decisions, all from organizations with annual revenue of no less than RMB 1 billion. Among them, 60 respondents' companies plan to deploy wheeled or legged humanoid robots in the next three years and are classified in the report as "potential adopters." Indicators such as price, satisfaction, and procurement criteria are mainly derived from this subsample.

Companies are increasingly clear in their demands: robots need to adapt to existing production processes, reliably complete tasks, and recoup investment within an acceptable timeframe. Insufficient data, limited cross-task and cross-scenario adaptability, and hardware reliability continue to constrain commercialization.

Willingness remains high, deployment expectations delayed by about one year

In this survey, 64% of surveyed companies plan to launch pilot or larger-scale projects for wheeled or legged humanoid robots in the next three years, slightly higher than the 62% in the 2025 survey. However, the two surveys did not use completely identical samples: the share of manufacturing companies rose from 51% to 65%, and manufacturing is inherently an industry more likely to adopt robots earlier. This structural change may affect year-over-year comparisons of adoption willingness.

Actual deployments have increased, but coverage remains limited. Among enterprises that have launched pilots or larger-scale projects, the corresponding proportion for composite robots is 19%, wheeled humanoid robots 10%, and legged humanoid robots 6%; last year, the figures were 14%, 6%, and 5%, respectively. These proportions reflect project initiation and cannot be directly regarded as penetration rates for scaled applications.

Expectations for the same future point in time have changed more noticeably. In the 2025 survey, 64% of respondent enterprises expected to deploy composite robots by the end of 2027, 58% expected to deploy wheeled humanoid robots, and 41% expected to deploy legged humanoid robots. This year, these three proportions fell to 50%, 36%, and 22%, respectively. Morgan Stanley accordingly judges that the overall adoption curve has shifted back by roughly one year.

Even when the time horizon is extended to the end of 2028, small-scale deployment still dominates. Among all respondent enterprises, 46% expect to deploy 1 to 10 composite robots by then, 40% for wheeled humanoid robots, and 33% for legged humanoid robots; the proportions expecting to deploy more than 50 units are only 13%, 4%, and 4%, respectively. The three robot categories are counted separately and should not be added together.

Morgan Stanley believes that the next stage is more likely to be characterized by an increase in the number of pilots, while scale expansion will depend on validation of reliability, scenario adaptability, and system integration. Composite robots and wheeled humanoid robots are expected to enter factories and warehouses earlier. For environments with flat floors and relatively fixed processes, wheeled mobility can meet many needs. Legged robots still have potential in complex terrain and high-value tasks, but technical requirements and reliability constraints may delay their widespread deployment.

More prudent procurement budgets, with below RMB 100,000 becoming the mainstream price expectation

Potential adopters remain willing to increase investment in robots, but expected growth has moderated somewhat. 85% expect robot investment to increase over the next three years, down from 91% last year; the proportion expecting a "significant increase" fell from 30% to 22%.

The benefits enterprises hope to obtain are mainly higher productivity, lower labor costs, and fewer errors, selected by 82%, 78%, and 58%, respectively. By contrast, the proportion expecting robots to help launch new services or new products fell from 36% to 22%. Procurement rationales are more concentrated on calculable returns in existing businesses.

High upfront investment has become the most common adoption barrier, chosen by 62% of potential adopters, followed by limited work capability or functionality (60%), difficulty integrating with existing systems (55%), maintenance and operating costs (52%), and technical limitations (47%).

For a standalone price suitable for broad adoption, 45% of potential adopters chose RMB 50,000 to under RMB 100,000, up from 28% last year; those choosing RMB 100,000 to under RMB 200,000 fell from 40% to 18%. A combined 72% believe the price should be below RMB 100,000, up from 53% last year. This is buyers' judgment of an economically viable price, not the average market transaction price.

Enterprises also set relatively clear investment payback requirements. 82% set the maximum acceptable payback period at within three years, with Morgan Stanley estimating an average of about 26 months. Compared with other automation projects, 37% require humanoid robots to have roughly the same payback period, 28% require a shorter one, only 12% can accept a longer one, and another 22% say it depends on the application scenario.

Price acceptance still varies by industry. Among potential adopters in manufacturing, 25% can accept a price of RMB 100,000 to under RMB 200,000, and 15% choose RMB 200,000 and above. Morgan Stanley believes robots undertaking higher-value production tasks may still command higher pricing. Factors determining procurement include actual productivity, equipment utilization, and integration and maintenance costs.

Manufacturing and logistics lead deployment, multi-task demand exceeds single-task demand

Calculated on an equal-weight basis across the three surveyed industries of industrial, manufacturing, and services, manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, and R&D are the most closely watched deployment areas, with corresponding proportions of 90%, 85%, and 79%. This measure reflects potential adopters' choices of application areas and does not represent actual deployment rates in each area.

Specific demand is concentrated in production line replenishment, in-warehouse transport, loading and unloading, sorting, packaging, palletizing, machine tool loading and unloading, and quality inspection. The output, labor savings, and safety improvements of such processes are relatively easy to measure, and it is also easier to verify whether robots can create economic value.

Environments that are dangerous, arduous, or unsuitable for long-term human work are another important category of demand. Respondents mentioned scenarios such as oil and gas production, high-temperature heat treatment, heavy object handling, hazardous area inspection, and low-temperature warehouse inspection. In these tasks, improvements in safety and stability constitute important procurement reasons.

Enterprises' requirements for functionality are also changing. 70% of potential adopters want robots to have "limited multi-task" capabilities, up from 49% last year; the proportion wanting them to perform specific tasks fell from 72% to 50%; and the proportion choosing general tasks rose from 32% to 38%. These options can be selected simultaneously.

Multi-task demand means robots need to switch between related workflows, for example connecting transport, inspection, and equipment operation. Respondents want robots to be able to learn new production processes, adapt to customized products, and coordinate with existing automation equipment and enterprise systems. Human-machine collaboration, equipment interconnection, and autonomous learning are the most anticipated future capabilities.

There remains a gap between these expectations and current product performance. Only 18% of potential adopters are satisfied with existing humanoid robot performance, down from 23% last year; the proportion dissatisfied rose from 25% to 28%, while another 53% held a neutral view.

Service-sector uses are also expanding, including store reception, shopping guidance, automobile sales presentations, customer Q&A, and commercial cleaning. However, Morgan Stanley believes that industrial tasks with relatively controllable environments and quantifiable results are still more likely to be deployed first in the near term. Whether robots can handle mobile operations, equipment interaction, and complex-environment tasks that existing fixed industrial robots struggle to cover will affect their incremental value.

Brand preferences remain early; repeat purchases are more convincing than customer lists

Unitree remains the vendor most frequently mentioned by surveyed companies, but its lead has narrowed. 47% of potential adopters have engaged with or evaluated Unitree, while DEEP Robotics and UBTECH each stood at 17%. For brands planned for deployment over the next three years, Unitree accounted for 32%, down from 60% last year; DEEP Robotics and UBTECH each accounted for 13%. These proportions reflect engagement, evaluation, or future intentions and cannot be used as market share.

Procurement criteria are converging. Reliability and safety, application fit and functionality, total cost, and expected return on investment were selected by 85%, 83%, 82%, and 80%, respectively. Among these, ROI rose 16 percentage points from last year. Return on investment (ROI) measures the relationship between input and return, which is related to but different from the payback period—"how long it takes to recover the investment."

DEEP Robotics received relatively high scores in eight vendor evaluation categories, but only 9 respondents evaluated it; UBTECH had 9, and Unitree had 25. The report also noted that some respondents may evaluate vendors based on experience with other products such as quadruped robots. Therefore, these results are insufficient to prove that any company's humanoid robot platform already has a commercialization advantage.

Morgan Stanley expects China's humanoid robot shipments to rise from 50,000 units in 2026 to 100,000 units in 2027, reaching 446,000 units in 2030. The institution expects that some task-specific pilots may gradually expand deployment starting in 2027, but the pace of expansion remains uncertain.

Across the supply chain, Morgan Stanley continues to favor component suppliers such as Hengli Hydraulic, Leaderdrive, and Shuanghuan Driveline. Its judgment is that as robot makers increase pilots to obtain real-world scenario data, component demand may be driven first even if end-market volumes have not yet fully ramped up.

The report said Leaderdrive's humanoid robot-related reducer orders in the first three quarters of 2026 were about 400,000 units, compared with about 100,000 units for all of 2025; the company plans to raise monthly capacity from about 90,000 units to 120,000 units by the end of 2026. This counts component volumes and cannot be directly compared with complete robot shipments. Rapid capacity expansion and price competition may also put pressure on supplier margins.

For Unitree, Morgan Stanley is bullish on its motion control, hardware integration, and cost control capabilities, as well as its potential to evolve into a full-stack intelligent robotics platform, but believes that its intelligence capabilities and repeatable commercial deployment still need further proof.

The next verification focus is whether customers make repeat purchases, whether they roll out robots to multiple production bases, and whether individual projects expand from a few units to more than ten. Enterprises' willingness to adopt provides a starting point for the industry, but scaled deployment still depends on whether robots can continuously and stably complete work and deliver accountable returns.

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