Anthropic has taken the lead by submitting its application ahead of OpenAI, shifting the competition from models, revenue, and valuation to the public market pricing.
Anthropic announced on Monday that it has confidentially submitted its IPO application in the United States, moving ahead of rival OpenAI in the listing process. In a statement, Anthropic said that the submission of the prospectus "gives us the right to go public after the SEC completes its review" and emphasized that the "proposed initial public offering will depend on market conditions and other factors."
This is not yet a formal public offering. According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO could come as early as this fall, but the company has not disclosed the offering size and terms. The significance of a confidential submission is that the company can advance IPO preparations without disclosing sensitive financial details to competitors and the public temporarily.
This development has made the IPO race for AI large model companies suddenly more specific. Previously, the market was more concerned about whose model was stronger and who had more users. Now, the question has become: who will undergo public market scrutiny first and who will price the "frontier AI companies" first.
This filing will test whether investors' enthusiasm for AI can withstand public market scrutiny and will also determine which company will establish a valuation template for the rapidly growing AI industry.
OpenAI has not yet followed up with a filing. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that he is "not focused on the potential timing of an IPO" and the company "will go public when the time is right."
However, the market was not originally betting this way. In prediction markets, most participants had previously expected OpenAI to submit its IPO application before Anthropic.
The IPO Window Is Open, but Money Isn't Unlimited
Anthropic is racing against time, driven by a very real market window.
Dealogic data shows that the IPO market has gained momentum in recent weeks, with global IPO financing reaching $875 billion as of May 26, the highest level for the same period since 2021.
Currently, the IPO window has clearly opened. AI chip company Cerebras saw a 68% increase on its first day of trading last month. According to FactSet data, among companies valued at over $10 billion at the time of their IPO in the past five years, only the digital design platform Figma had a higher first-day surge of 250% during its listing last year.
But having the window open doesn't mean unlimited funds.
It is worth noting that SpaceX is also pushing for a massive IPO, aiming to raise $750 billion at a valuation of $17.5 trillion, possibly as soon as in two weeks. If SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public one after another, the U.S. stock market will have to digest multiple mega-cap tech assets simultaneously.
Kat Liu, Vice President of IPO research firm IPOX, told Reuters: "Filing shortly after SpaceX allowed Anthropic to take advantage of the still favorable window and capitalize on investors' strong interest in AI and growth stocks."
She also said: "Compared to SpaceX, Anthropic's valuation expectations don't seem as aggressive when looked at in isolation."
Patrick Healy, Founder of Issuer Network, said: "There's only so much oxygen in the room." He also said, "SpaceX will consume a massive amount of capital, and the second one to go on stage will have a better position than the third."
Gil Luria, analyst at D.A. Davidson, said: "The combined capital needs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will be very significant, likely disrupting the capital markets, so going public earlier would be a huge advantage."
Filing First: A Race to Narratives and Risk
The advantages of filing first are quite straightforward: setting the price first, fundraising first, and providing liquidity to employees and early-stage investors first.
However, filing first also comes at a cost: disclosing financials first, facing questioning from institutional investors first, and exposing the AI company's true cost structure first.
Harrison Rolfes, Senior Analyst at PitchBook, said: "The conventional interpretation is that Anthropic has just gained a narrative advantage by filing first."
But he also offered an alternative view: "The unconventional interpretation is that OpenAI may have actually gotten the better outcome: Anthropic voluntarily took on all disclosure risks first, allowing OpenAI to now observe for free how institutional investors react to audited cutting-edge AI financials before deciding on their own pricing."
This statement strikes at the heart of an AI company's IPO. The public market will look not only at the 'AI story' but also at revenue quality, computational costs, cloud service royalties, cash burn, customer structure, and profit margins.
According to The Wall Street Journal, citing academic research, IPOs tend to cluster within an industry, and companies listing later in the cycle usually underperform their earlier-listed counterparts. The report explains that companies with deeper moats and higher quality often go public earlier, followed by a wave of followers.
However, being an early mover doesn't guarantee a win.
In 2019, Lyft went public before Uber, but its post-IPO performance fell short of expectations, directly impacting Uber's listing two months later. Uber then revised its target valuation downward, but its stock price still dropped post-IPO.
The report also mentioned that after Facebook went public in 2012, its stock price dropped by over half within three months, as the market was concerned about its ability to adapt to the shift to mobile advertising. Facebook later proved its business model, but other companies that were planning to go public, including Twitter, had to wait it out.
This means that Anthropic is one step ahead, possibly securing the pricing power for an AI IPO and potentially becoming the first large-scale model company to go public.
Why Anthropic: The Revenue, Valuation, Profit Narratives Are Changing
Anthropic is now taking a bold step forward, driven by the financial changes of the past few months.
Wall Street News mentioned that Anthropic's annualized revenue is approaching $45 billion. OpenAI has just surpassed $30 billion in annualized revenue, currently estimated at around $33 billion. By this measure, Anthropic's revenue scale is at least 35% higher than OpenAI's.
This change has been rapid. Reports indicate that by the end of 2025, Anthropic's annualized revenue was only $9 billion, less than half of OpenAI's. In the first five months of this year, Anthropic's revenue grew by about 5 times, while OpenAI's revenue grew by over 50% during the same period.
The revenue structures of the two companies also differ. OpenAI's revenue mainly comes from ChatGPT subscriptions, while Anthropic relies more on selling AI programming and other white-collar workplace scenario API access to enterprises.
For the public market, these two types of revenue will be compared. Subscription revenue is assessed by user base and retention, while enterprise API revenue is evaluated based on customer stickiness, usage frequency, and unit economics.
In terms of valuation, Anthropic has also taken the lead.
Reuters reported that Anthropic completed a $65 billion financing round in late May, surpassing OpenAI with a post-money valuation of $965 billion. OpenAI's latest valuation in March was $852 billion.
Anthropic's valuation has been rising rapidly. In February this year, Anthropic raised $30 billion at a valuation of $380 billion. By late May, the valuation had more than doubled. The latest round of investors includes Blackstone, Brookfield, D1 Capital Partners, GIC, General Catalyst, and Insight Partners.
Anthropic's rapid rise earlier this year had shaken software and IT stocks as investors worried that more autonomous AI tools would disrupt traditional business models and accelerate industry transformation.
On the profit front, the gap has drawn more market attention.
According to The Information, Anthropic is expected to achieve approximately $559 million in operating profit in the second quarter, with an operating profit margin of about 5%.
OpenAI, on the other hand, is still in a significant loss-making position. Reports indicate that OpenAI's first-quarter operating loss rate was as high as 122%, excluding significant items such as equity incentives. By that calculation, OpenAI's quarterly operating loss was at least $7 billion.
Cost pressures mainly stem from computing power.
Early this year, OpenAI forecasted a cash burn of around $25 billion for the year, with AI server rental costs reaching up to $32 billion. Additionally, OpenAI also needs to allocate 20% of its total revenue to Microsoft, under an agreement that extends until 2030. If this year's revenue reaches the previously predicted $30 billion, about $6 billion would go to Microsoft.
Anthropic also faces cost pressures. Anthropic similarly needs to share revenue with cloud partners. Its revenue accounting methodology includes the total amount sold through other cloud providers, a portion of which will eventually be returned to the cloud partners.
Anthropic's current profit status is not without risks. With rapid revenue growth, the company needs to significantly increase server resources, which could potentially lead them back into losses.
This is also where the public market will inquire: how fast is revenue growing, is computing power costs rising faster or slower, how much of the total revenue ultimately goes to partners, and whether enterprise customers are truly retained or artificially boosted by short-term AI enthusiasm.
This IPO Race Will Ultimately Be a Public Market Stress Test
From a timeline perspective, Anthropic has already accelerated the pace.
From a financial narrative perspective, it has also presented a more easily understood combination: higher annualized revenue, a higher latest valuation, and at least short-term better operating profit performance.
However, this does not mean the IPO outcome is already determined. Filing confidentially is not a successful listing, nor is it the final valuation landing. The real test will begin after the prospectus is made public.
The public market will compare Anthropic, OpenAI, and other AI companies on the same table: revenue growth rate, profit margin, cash burn, compute spend, cloud partnership revenue share, customer structure, model capabilities, and commercialization path.
Who goes public first and how the market reacts could affect the futures of both companies and potentially influence the next phase of the AI boom: either reinforcing market confidence in the transformative power of AI or issuing a warning about AI overheating.
For investors, this competition is no longer just about "whose model is smarter." It is now also about who can first turn the AI narrative into financial statements that the public market is willing to pay for.
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