On June 6th, BTC once fell below the $60,000 mark, hitting a low of $59,130. By June 8th, the Bitcoin price had recovered to around $63,000. Although the price had risen by several thousand dollars, the previous breach of a key psychological level still weighed heavily on the confidence and sentiment of the crypto market.
The current fear and greed index is at 15, indicating extreme fear in the market sentiment. Most altcoins followed suit, plunging deep along with the overall market.
Is it a buy-the-dip opportunity now? Institutions, traders, and others have shared their views.
Glassnode Co-founder: Key Bottom Range Is $46,000 to $54,000
Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, expressed in a post that Bitcoin has retraced about 50% from its all-time high. On-chain data indicates that BTC is currently operating around a crucial support area formed by the midpoint price (approximately $64,100) and the 200-week moving average ($61,700).
Historically, Bitcoin has spent only about 7% of its trading time below this level.
Based on a long-term valuation model, below the 200-week moving average are successively the realized price (about $54,000), CVDD ($46,200), fair value price ($40,000), and Delta price ($35,000). Reversals in previous bear market bottoms have touched this cost range before completion, with CVDD considered the most accurate historical bottom anchor. According to the current model, the range of $46,000 to $54,000 constitutes a higher probability bottom area, while $35,000 to $40,000 belongs to a deep surrender zone in extreme panic scenarios, historically accounting for less than 3% of trading days.
However, as the Bitcoin market gradually matures, the magnitude of retracements in each cycle is narrowing. The maximum declines in the previous rounds of bear markets were 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the current one has only fallen about 50% from the all-time high. This indicates that there is still a possibility of further downside, but the higher probability bottom may lie in the range of $46,000 to $54,000. If there is a subsequent rebound, $75,000 to $79,000 will be the first significant recovery zone, with higher pressure levels around the 50-week moving average near $93,000 and the previous all-time high.
NYDIG Global Head of Research: AI Siphoning Off Significant Crypto Funds
NYDIG's Global Head of Research, Greg Cipolaro, stated in a research report that he believes the overlap between AI and crypto investors is far greater than many realize. Both have attracted investors seeking exposure to emerging technologies and outsized returns. With AI-related stocks continuing to outperform the broader market, capital has flowed out of the crypto market. Investors are also gearing up for what could be the largest tech IPO cycle in years. Quantum computing and Strategy selling BTC have heightened market concerns.
In his report, Greg Cipolaro noted that several metrics are approaching levels historically coinciding with major bottoms. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has dropped to 1.2, with the percentage of recently profitable supply slipping below 50%, another metric often associated with capitulation. However, the magnitude of this pullback remains relatively modest by historical standards. He pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen around 53% from its peak in October at $126,000, much shallower than the 75%-90% pullbacks seen in previous cycles. Whether the low has been formed likely depends on whether institutional demand has structurally altered the cycle or simply postponed a deeper retrace.
Standard Chartered Bank Digital Asset Research Head: Bitcoin Bottom Almost Formed
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered Bank's Head of Digital Asset Research, said the Bitcoin bottom has "almost formed," and the current price range may be the long-awaited buying opportunity for investors.
A key driver of this recent decline was Strategy selling 32 BTC, but based on historical experience from the end of 2022, Strategy is likely to swiftly engage in larger-scale replenishment, with expected buybacks potentially reaching 10 to 100 times the amount sold previously.
If buying pressure is confirmed, it will serve as a significant signal of the market bottom.
Strive CEO: Bitcoin Touches 200-Week Moving Average (Fifth time in history), Previous Four Instances Were Perfect Buying Opportunities
Asset management company Strive's CEO, Matt Cole, stated on CNBC Squawk Box Europe that Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average (the fifth time in history), with the previous four instances being "perfect buying opportunities." He also emphasized that Bitcoin's fundamentals have "never been better," and he sees this touch of the 200-week moving average as a historic buying opportunity.
Trader Eugene: Has Temporarily Retired from the Crypto Market to Focus on US Stocks, Will Not Attempt to Buy the Bitcoin Dip Again
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel stating that he has mostly exited the cryptocurrency market since May 13th this year and has redirected his main focus to researching the stock market. He believes that compared to the current state of the crypto market, the stock market is more attractive in terms of research depth, cognitive challenges, and trading and investment opportunities. Based on his assessment of the industry's current status, he expects to maintain this strategy for the foreseeable future, only continuing to monitor crypto industry developments without actively participating in trading.
Eugene further expressed that unless the market presents a highly compelling risk-reward opportunity, he currently has no plans to return to the crypto market and has not yet seen such conditions emerge. He believes that the developmental trajectory of the crypto market is undermining its attractiveness in the trading and investment space, so he will continue to focus on the traditional stock market in the short term.
Regarding Strategy, Eugene believes that related risks are just beginning to manifest. He stated that even though Strategy has sold more Bitcoin recently, it only postpones the issue rather than truly resolving it.
Until the high correlation between Strategy and Bitcoin is broken, he does not see a bullish opportunity for Bitcoin. As for the market's bottom position, he admitted he cannot determine it, but he is no longer trying to catch falling knives through bottom-fishing trades.
Trader Killa: Now Is the Standby Buy Opportunity
Trader Killa tweeted during the Bitcoin dip on June 6th, stating that now is a generational buy opportunity. On June 8th, he mentioned that BTC has entered the "final stage" and "ultimate extension" and has committed 90% of his holdings.
In addition, Killa noted that the "protective buy walls" that appeared during last weekend's crash have not yet been withdrawn. He believes the likelihood of rapidly hitting these support levels in the short term is low. Killa is a BTC-focused quantitative trader who predicted the current bull market peak in May 2025.
Analyst Darkfost: Bitcoin Has Entered an Extremely Undervalued Zone
Analyst Darkfost shared data indicating that Bitcoin has retraced below the Power Law model's 4th percentile line, entering an extremely undervalued range where historically only 4% of the time has been spent at such valuation levels. Darkfost emphasized that this is a suitable period for building a long-term position and not for short-term price predictions.
Polymarket Data: BTC Breaking $55,000 Probability at 72%
The latest data on Polymarket shows that the probability of BTC breaking $45,000 is 41%, breaking $50,000 is 56%, and breaking $55,000 is 72%. The probability of dropping below $40,000 is 31%, and the probability of dropping below $35,000 is only 21%.
Most market players currently believe that the probability of BTC dropping below $35,000 to $40,000 is not high.
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