Over the past two weeks, apart from Bitwise, three leading crypto industry research institutions that I have long followed have all released in-depth reports discussing the same topic: Has the crypto market bottomed?
· Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin has not bottomed yet, data points to potential bottoming range
· NYDIG: Factors suppressing Bitcoin's price action
· Standard Chartered: Market bottom has been reached
These three reports are comprehensive, containing a vast amount of data and complete logical deductions, which are worth reading in full. However, if you are looking for a simple and unified answer, you may be disappointed: the assessments from the three authoritative institutions are completely different.
Has the Market Bottomed?
· Galaxy Digital: No
· NYDIG: Possible bottoming, but unlikely
· Standard Chartered: Already bottomed
Below, we will break down the core logic of each institution one by one.
Three Institutions, Three Perspectives
Galaxy Digital
Galaxy Digital analyzed the complete 17-year history of Bitcoin's price action, summarizing 13 indicators that synchronously appear when the market truly bottoms out, covering six dimensions: valuation, profit-taking selling, miner pressure, market trend, bull-bear cycles, and market sentiment. Long-time Bitcoin investors are no strangers to these indicators, including the 200-week moving average, fear/greed index, and Mayer Multiple.
Galaxy found that currently only 4 indicators fully meet the criteria, 2 partially meet, and the remaining 7 have not triggered bottoming signals. The report concludes that the bottom range for this Bitcoin cycle is between $30,000 and $54,000, with a neutral benchmark bottom ranging from $40,000 to $46,000.
NYDIG
NYDIG also adopts a multi-indicator comprehensive analysis framework, comparing the current market situation with historical cycles, evaluating the market status from dimensions such as maximum drawdown duration and holder's P&L (referred to by Bitcoin users as "MVRV," the ratio of market value to realized value).
NYDIG believes that the current various indicators are very close to the extreme range of historical lows but have not yet seen the iconic widespread panic selling of previous bear markets. The report also introduces a variable: institutional fund inflows have changed the logic of the Bitcoin cycle from the ground up, and this round of correction may be smaller than historical bear markets. From this perspective, the bottom may have already occurred.
Standard Chartered Bank
Standard Chartered Bank is not blindly bullish on Bitcoin. When the price of Bitcoin reached $67,000 in February this year, the bank lowered its full-year price outlook, warning that the price could drop to $50,000 due to macroeconomic weakness and continuous Bitcoin ETF selling pressure.
However, last Friday, Standard Chartered Bank updated its view, identifying $59,000 as the bottom of this round of the market. The two main logics supporting this view are: the potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement and the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO. Standard Chartered believes that the previous massive ETF holders sold Bitcoin to raise funds to participate in the SpaceX listing, and the selling pressure will gradually dissipate. Standard Chartered's latest forecast is that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 later this year.
The Consensus of the Three Reports Is Greater Than the Differences
You may wonder what effective information can be distilled from three reports with completely opposing views. In fact, the underlying consensus of the three reports is much greater than the apparent differences. For long-term investors, the conclusion reached by all three carries far more reference value than the disagreements:
· All three judge that the market bottom of this round will occur within this year;
· All three believe that the current market situation is closer to the bottom than to the previous high;
· All three unanimously believe that Bitcoin will still see a new bull market in the future.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is around $67,000. One report claims the bottom is already at $59,000, one predicts a dip to $50,000, and another sets a neutral benchmark at $43,000. However, the core conclusion is highly consistent: the bottom will definitely be reached within the year.
This is the key point that long-term investors should focus on. Whether the bottom is at $40,000, $50,000, or $60,000, the difference is actually limited; the real key is whether Bitcoin can continue to rise to $100,000, $200,000, or even a million dollars. As long as it can reach these price levels, entering at the current price and holding long-term will have considerable profit potential.
An ironic phenomenon in the current market is that everyone is obsessing over whether the market has bottomed out, while ignoring the more important question of whether the top has already occurred. In my view, as long as the top is not in, Bitcoin has long-term value as part of a portfolio.
The core logic supporting Bitcoin's long-term value has not only not disappeared but has been continually reinforced: government debts around the world continue to mount with no clear resolution; inflation steadily erodes the real purchasing power of wealth; trust in centralized institutions such as governments and banks keeps declining; global digitization is accelerating; Bitcoin's transaction and investment infrastructure keeps improving; the early cryptocurrency-native community is aging, and their assets and industry influence are growing in sync.
Of course, there are still potential risks in the market, including threats from quantum computing and global regulatory tightening. However, all things considered, the current situation is more favorable than any previous cryptocurrency winter.
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