Less than two weeks after SpaceX's IPO, the market hype has shifted from being one of the "largest IPOs of the year" to a concern of whether retail investors can weather the pullback. According to SpaceX's pricing announcement and SEC FWP, the company announced an IPO price of $135 on June 11, issuing 5.555 billion shares, raising approximately $75 billion in base funding. Trading under the symbol "SPCX," SpaceX started trading on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas on June 12. The stock closed at $160.95 on the first day, marking a roughly 19% increase from the IPO price. However, as of 09:25 UTC on June 23, 2026, market data shows SPCX trading at $154.6, a decrease of about 16.5% from the previous close. This new stock ignited by Musk, Starlink, and the space infrastructure narrative is now facing its first post-IPO supply-demand test.

Retreat After a Strong First Day, Retail Investor Funds Still In Play

The scale of SpaceX's IPO itself is already quite remarkable. With a base funding of around $75 billion, and a potential increase to approximately $86.25 billion if the greenshoe option is fully exercised, this is not just any tech company going public for U.S. stock investors. It's a singular event where Musk's personal appeal, reusable rockets, low-earth satellite network, and anticipation of defense contracts are all simultaneously brought to the public market.

The first-day performance lived up to these expectations. The strong demand corresponding to the $135 IPO price, combined with the closing price of $160.95, quickly made SpaceX the focus of retail and short-term capital. However, the initial scarcity of shares and narrative hype did not sustain a unidirectional price increase. The approximately 16.5% intraday drop on June 23 has prompted the market to reassess the price resilience of the company post-IPO.

Retail investor buying remains a crucial force supporting the market. Citing VandaTrack data, Axios reports that SpaceX set a record for retail investor net buying on a single day for a large IPO in recent years, with net purchases of around $117.6 million. This metric, more accurate than "retail buying the dip," better illustrates the current trading environment: while institutions and long-term capital are starting to scrutinize valuation, profitability, and lock-up arrangements, retail investors still view SpaceX as a must-have super asset.

This buying frenzy is not hard to understand. SpaceX is easily seen as the "next Tesla-like story": high technological barrier, strong founder recognition, and a massive commercial space. Starlink has given investors a revenue entry point that is easier to imagine than rocket launches. However, public materials also show that the company's 2025 revenue is around $18.7 billion, with a 33% revenue growth, a net profit margin of about -26%, and hints at ongoing capital expenditure pressure. In other words, the market is betting on future years of revenue expansion and cash flow improvement, rather than current profits that already fully justify the valuation.

Option Bulls Bet on Higher Prices, But a Short Squeeze is Not a Certain Script

More aggressive than buying common stock is the options market.

Some options chain data shows that after SpaceX went public, bullish options trading was active, and high strike price contracts became a topic of discussion among traders. There have also been discussions in the market about whether the stock price could be pushed into a higher range, potentially triggering a gamma squeeze.

The mechanism of a gamma squeeze is not complex. When a large number of call options are heavily traded and the stock price approaches a key strike price, market makers may buy the underlying stock to hedge risks, thereby driving up the stock price and creating a short-term feedback loop. In recent years, such scenarios have not been uncommon in retail trading in the U.S. stock market.

But at present, SpaceX appears more like a bet around volatility rather than a one-way move where fundamentals have caught up with the stock price. To truly form a gamma squeeze, several conditions need to be met simultaneously: the stock price must be close to a key strike price, trading of call options and open interest contracts must be sufficiently concentrated, and the common stock market must not be under significant selling pressure. If any of these conditions are not met, the enthusiasm for options may just amplify the price fluctuations rather than sustainably drive the stock price higher.

This is also the most contradictory aspect of the current trading. Retail investors and option bulls are still betting on the Musk narrative, while stock price retreats remind the market that the scarcity of chips and sentiment-driven buying pressure early in the IPO cannot replace revenue, profit, and cash flow validation. SpaceX's scarcity has not disappeared, but the price has begun to undergo the daily scrutiny of the public market.

September Selling Pressure Controversy Heats Up, Unlocking Does Not Equal Selling

Beyond short-term volatility, the market is more concerned about post-lockup saleable shares.

An SEC FWP confirms that SpaceX has a tiered lockup arrangement. Musk's shares are locked for 366 days. Shares held by some investors, executives, and directors will be released in tranches from the fourth quarter of 2026 results to the second quarter of 2027 results. Other shares may be released in tranches as early as the second quarter of 2026 results to 180 days after the IPO.

22V Research analyst Jeff Jacobson's calculation is even more aggressive. He warns that around September, insiders may have a window to sell about 44% of their shares. If this estimate is close to reality, the tradable market shares will significantly increase, and the price elasticity formed during the early listing period, relying on a small float and retail buying, will be weakened.

Here, two issues need to be distinguished. Unlocking does not necessarily mean that insiders will sell, nor does it mean that the selling pressure will hit the market all at once on a certain day. The actual selling pace depends on the stock price position, company fundamentals, insiders' fund needs, underwriting arrangements, and the overall market environment. However, unlocking will alter the trading structure. In the early stages of listing, most shares are still locked up, making it easier for any continuous buying to drive the price. After the available shares increase, SpaceX will need to face a supply-demand balance more akin to a normal listed company.

This is particularly crucial for retail investors. If insiders choose to sell in the overvalued range while retail funds are still chasing rebounds, SpaceX's trading narrative will shift from "scarcity asset being bought up" to "increased supply testing valuation." The market does not need to see all shares being sold; just the potential increase in supply is enough to cause some funds to deleverage early, reduce positions, or shift to short-term options trading.

Musk's Narrative Remains Strong, But Stock Price Needs to Wait for Performance to Catch Up

The controversy around SpaceX is not about whether the company is scarce. It has one of the world's few large-scale reusable rocket launch capabilities, Starlink has become one of the most commercially viable low-earth orbit satellite networks, and Musk still has a strong capital market appeal. The real disagreement lies in how much the post-listing stock price has already factored in this future growth.

Retail funds can sustain sentiment in the short term, and options trading can create sharp rebounds. But neither can replace operational data in the long run. Whether revenue growth can cover high capital expenditures, whether net losses can narrow, whether Starlink-related business can continue to contribute more stable cash flow will all affect how high investors are willing to value SpaceX.

From now until September, SpaceX has to deal with two things at the same time: the still-excited retail investors and options bulls on one side, and the gradually approaching unlock period release on the other. Musk's narrative has not failed, but the public market will continuously demand harder performance evidence from the company. Whether the stock price can hold onto the post-listing hype will ultimately depend on whether buyers are still willing to take on the same price when additional supply appears.

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