The Bitcoin price is rising, while short positions in perpetual contracts have been holding for 46 consecutive days. The last time such a split occurred was at the bottom of the FTX collapse. JPMorgan Chase set a new daily trading record of 11.6 billion, and the war volatility has become Wall Street's best quarterly commodity.
1｜Bitcoin Tests $75K Structural Breakthrough, Perpetual Contract Shorts Held for 46 Days
Bitcoin touched a one-month high of $75,000 yesterday, briefly breaking above $76,000 before pulling back. Technically, this is a key level, with analysts suggesting that holding steadily signals a shift from consolidation to a new uptrend. Market makers are currently deeply negative gamma, and hedging behavior will amplify two-way volatility.
What's truly noteworthy are derivative signals. The Binance perpetual contract funding rate has been negative for 46 days in a row, with open interest rising concurrently. The last time such a long period of short positioning occurred was after the 2022 FTX collapse, marking the bottom of the crypto winter.
As the price rises, shorts are adding to their positions, with both sets of data confirming each other. This kind of structural divergence typically signals an upcoming directional choice. The crypto compliance triad progress reported last night (PARITY Tax Reform/Clarity Act/Ondo Tokenization) could serve as a catalyst to break the deadlock if it advances this week.
(Source: CoinDesk / CryptoQuant / The Block)
2｜Amazon Acquires $11.6B Apple Satellite Network, Countering Starlink with Spectrum Leapfrog
Amazon has announced the acquisition of Globalstar for $11.6 billion, with Apple holding roughly a 20% stake. Globalstar provides emergency SOS satellite service for iPhones, and after the acquisition, Amazon will take over and continue the collaboration with Apple.
The core of the acquisition is the spectrum, not the satellites. Globalstar's S-band and L-band global licenses are the regulatory ticket for low-orbit direct-connect devices, self-applying for over a decade. Amazon's Leo (formerly Kuiper) has around 241 satellites in orbit, while Starlink has exceeded 10,000 satellites and serves 9 million users. The FCC requires Amazon to complete the networking of 1,618 satellites by July 30, or risk losing the license. Musk's single-share control of Starlink has been seen as a political risk, giving Apple and Amazon the motivation to jointly build an alternative network.
(Source: TechCrunch / CNBC / GeekWire)
3 | JPMorgan Chase Sets $11.6 Billion Trading Record, War Volatility Turns Street's Best Quarter
JPMorgan Chase reported Q1 revenue of $50.54 billion, beating expectations by $1.4 billion, with trading revenue of $11.6 billion setting a single-quarter record. The main contributions came from fixed income and investment banking, capturing the oil, currency, and interest rate triple volatility caused by the Hormuz blockade. Goldman Sachs also posted strong results on the same day, with earnings per share of $17.55, exceeding expectations by a dollar.
However, JPMorgan Chase lowered its full-year net interest income guidance from $104.5 billion to $103 billion. On the flip side of the record-breaking trading revenue is the narrowing of spreads. S&P 500 Q1 earnings expectations increased by 13.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with the tech sector's profit growth at 8%, no longer the fastest.
Wall Street is not afraid of war, but of boredom. The volatility created by the Iran conflict since February was the best commodity for bank trading desks in the past five years. War has raised the cost of the real economy and also boosted the income of financial intermediaries. The final bill will eventually be seen at the consumer end.
(Source: CNBC / Seeking Alpha / FactSet)
4 | OpenAI Releases GPT-5.4-Cyber, Changing Access Logic for Cybersecurity
OpenAI has started rolling out GPT-5.4-Cyber, designed for endpoint cybersecurity. It is being released through a tiered approach: through the Trusted Access for Cyber project for identity verification, only the highest-level users can access sensitive capabilities like vulnerability research. Initially, it is only open to approved security vendors and research teams.
The logic shift is clear. The previous approach was to limit what the model itself could do, but now it is about restricting who can use the most powerful version. This is similar to the non-proliferation logic—keep the weapon, control the key.
The recent Anodot incident in the morning news proved one thing: large-scale real-world breaches still rely on social engineering and credential theft, and SaaS supply chains have amplified the radius of low-tech attacks tenfold. While OpenAI is upgrading the defensive toolbox, the window of asymmetric attack and defense is still widening. Anthropic is also engaged in similar tiered releases simultaneously (follow-up to Mythos), with both racing not over whose model is stronger but to see whose trust framework becomes the industry standard first.
(Source: Axios / Bloomberg / 9to5Mac / Security Boulevard)
5 | Meta Superintelligence Lab Delivers First Model, What Did 135 Billion Capital Expenditure Buy
Meta released Muse Spark (codenamed Avocado) on April 8, the first public model since the establishment of Meta Superintelligence Labs. Meta spent $14 billion last year to acquire the team of Wang Huixian, the founder of Scale AI, to build this lab, and Muse Spark is the first productized signal from the acquisition.
Meta's AI capital expenditure budget for 2026 is between $115 billion and $135 billion, nearly double that of last year. In the same week, Meta confirmed the execution of a $60 billion chip supply agreement with AMD, with custom-made Instinct MI450 GPUs scheduled to start shipping in the second half of the year. Meta's head of infrastructure stated that relying on a single chip supplier at an expenditure scale of $135 billion per year poses an "existential risk."
The actual capabilities of Muse Spark are still to be tested. But Meta's strategy is already on the books: lock in computational power diversification with massive capital expenditure and run the superintelligence narrative with acquired teams. OpenAI has an annualized revenue of $25 billion, Anthropic $19 billion, and Meta's AI capital expenditure in one year is twice the combined revenue of the two companies. The unit of competition has shifted from performance to capital expenditure.
(Source: CNBC / Bloomberg / TechCrunch)
Also Worth Knowing ↓
Frontier Labs' First Joint Undistillation: 16 Million Unauthorized Interactions Target Three Chinese Companies. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google shared threat intelligence through the Frontier Model Forum, with Anthropic reporting DeepSeek, Dark Side of the Moon, and MiniMax creating 24,000 fake accounts to steal model outputs. Export control card hardware, distillation attacks bypass physical pipelines directly to the ability to execute, and two antagonistic threads are in the same game. (Source: Bloomberg / CNBC / Built In)
Novo Nordisk Collaborates with OpenAI to Accelerate Next-Generation Weight Loss Drug Development. Novo Nordisk announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI to use AI to screen drug candidate molecules, compress the time from research to patients, and fully integrate by the end of the year. This comes as Novo Nordisk's lead in the weight management market is being eroded by Liv Co's products, with the oral Wegovy tablet already launched in January. The pharma industry is three years behind in the AI race compared to tech companies, but the subsidy levels are the same. (Source: CNBC / Bloomberg)
The Trump tariff system is being rebuilt on three lines, with today marking the deadline for comments on 76 investigations. The USTR initiated a Section 301 investigation covering 76 economies in March, the Section 232 drug tariff, which will be 100% effective starting in July, was signed in February, and after the Supreme Court's February rejection of the IEEPA, 24 states filed lawsuits against the Section 122 temporary tariff in the CIT. The tariff authority is shifting from the "Presidential Emergency Order" to a new framework of "Congressional Authorization + Administrative Investigation." (Source: USTR / White House / Tax Foundation)
PwC Report: 74% of the economic benefits of the AI economy are captured by 20% of organizations. Leaders focus on growth, while most companies are still stuck in the pilot phase. The differentiation of AI is not between "use and non-use" but between "using it to make money or using it to save money," with the returns on these two strategies exponentially diverging. (Source: PwC)
64% of Republican campaign advisors use AI daily, compared to 49% of Democratic advisors. The Democratic National Committee has banned staff from using ChatGPT and Claude, allowing only Gemini for code and data analysis. The partisan gap in AI adoption is affecting campaign efficiency. (Source: Axios)
The FBI projects a $114 billion loss due to encryption-related fraud by 2025, a 22% increase from the previous year. There were 181,500 complaints, with the elderly being the most affected. As on-chain crime scales up, the industry is struggling to catch up with regulatory frameworks, leading to a mismatch in growth rates between the two fronts. (Source: The Block / FBI)
The Ethereum Foundation launches a $1 million audit subsidy program to reduce developer security costs, making audits a default rather than a luxury. Against the backdrop of Anodot and Drift theft totaling hundreds of millions of dollars, defensive investments are finally starting to catch up with offensive investments. (Source: CoinDesk)
KKR invests $820 million in convertible bonds in Samsung SDS, betting on AI full-stack infrastructure. KKR announced a subscription to Samsung SDS convertible bonds, with both parties focusing on M&A and global AI full-stack expansion. Samsung SDS positions itself as a full-stack AI solution provider, aiming to capture a portion of the enterprise AI budget shifting from Silicon Valley to Asian manufacturing and cloud infrastructure overflow. (Source: 36Kr / Jiemian)
