Crude Oil / US Stock Index

After 13 consecutive nights of military action, the US paused its strikes against Iran, making Saturday the first night in nearly two weeks without a US airstrike. Iran also refrained from retaliation for two days and conveyed to the US its stance of reciprocity, stating that as long as the US maintains the pause, Iran will continue the ceasefire.

Following the news of the attack on the Port of Al Hudaydah, CL experienced a short-term rebound, with prices briefly rising to $91. Amid the ongoing ceasefire and increasing expectations of a strait agreement, prices continued to decline, dropping to $84.

A diplomatic window then opened. Iran and Oman discussed commercial shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday and Saturday, with both sides describing the talks as constructive and making some progress. A possible dual-lane framework would involve the southern lane on the Omani side remaining open as usual, while ships on the northern lane on the Iranian side would be required to coordinate in advance without incurring fees or additional restrictions.

This remains a proposal, with implementation details yet to be finalized. However, the oil price on TradeXYZ quickly dropped from $89 to $86, as the market gave an optimistic outlook on the short-term peace.

The tail risks have not disappeared. An Iranian commercial vessel was attacked in the Caspian Sea, resulting in one crew member's death. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that this incident cannot go unanswered. There are also new shipping variables in the Red Sea. Market predictions suggest a 47% probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal navigation by July 2027, with a likelihood of around 38% within 2026.

There is still a gap between diplomatic progress and execution credibility.

Stocks

Against the backdrop of the TACO, individual stocks saw varying degrees of increases following the trend of the US stock index.

The storage sector stocks showed relative strength this past weekend.

Cryptocurrency-related stocks also exhibited strength, with MicroStrategy set to release its financial report this week.

SpaceX was an exception in the overall bullish trend, showing significant divergence in performance compared to RKLB in the same sector.

Yongping Duan stated that he has sold 1000 year-end expiring put options for SpaceX with a strike price of $115, with a transaction premium of approximately $23.26. This is a potential delivery transaction, indicating that downside protection around $115 still commands a high price.

Precious Metals

Precious metals continued to follow the trend of risk assets, with silver rising by 2.22%, gold by 1.06%, and platinum by 2.34%; while natural gas continued its weakness, falling by 2.92%. If the rate hike begins in July or the magnitude of the rate hike in September exceeds expectations, gold may still need to establish a bottom and undergo consolidation.

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