On March 23, Trump announced a 5-day delay in the strike on Iran's energy infrastructure, claiming there had been a "very good and productive dialogue" and "major points of agreement" between the US and Iran. Upon this news, Brent crude oil dropped from $112 to $99.94, a one-day plunge of 10.92%, marking the largest single-day drop since the start of Epic Fury.
However, Iranian Speaker Galibaf denied that any direct negotiations had taken place that day. Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan acted as intermediaries, while Kushner and Whitkoft were coordinating, but there was a disagreement on "whether talks were taking place" itself.
On the Iran issue, this is not the first time Trump has issued a "final warning" and then backed off. From 2018 to the present, a similar pattern has emerged 7 times.
7 Threats, 2 Executions
Taking a look at all of Trump's major threats to Iran from 2018 to date, the pattern is very clear.
In 2018, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, and true to his word, sanctions were reinstated as planned. In February 2026, he launched Epic Fury, also following through, killing Qasem Soleimani within 24 hours and destroying over 70% of Iran's missile launchers (according to Israeli intelligence assessment). These two threats were fully executed, causing a significant oil price reaction. Epic Fury caused Brent to surge from $71 to $119.50, a 70% increase.
However, the other side is equally prominent. In June 2019, when Iran shot down a US drone, Trump ordered strikes on Iranian radar and missile sites, with the military already "cocked and loaded," but called off the attack 10 minutes before launching. On March 21, 2026, he issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which expired without any action, turning into a "5-day delay."
Out of the 7 instances, 2 were fully executed, 2 were partially carried out, 2 resulted in retreat, and 1 is pending. Market reactions have also varied. After halting the strike in 2019, oil prices only fell by 3-5%. This 5-day delay caused a direct 10.92% drop in oil prices. The market's response to signals of "delay" is amplifying as investors increasingly quickly price in the "devaluation of threats."
What Does a $100 Oil Price Say
After the 5-day window expires, there are three possibilities.
The first is reaching some kind of framework agreement. Not a comprehensive agreement, more likely a 30-60 day temporary freeze to buy time for further negotiations. In this scenario, Brent could fall back to the $80-90 range, close to Goldman Sachs' 2026 average price forecast of $85.
Second, deferred talks continue. After a 5-day deadline expires without a deal or a strike, a new postponement window is opened. Oil prices remain volatile in the $95-110 range, with no elimination or escalation of war risk premium.
Third, resuming strikes with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to CSIS' scenario model, if Iran expands attacks on Gulf oil facilities after being struck, Brent could spike to $130-150. Goldman Sachs' extreme scenario is more aggressive: if the Hormuz blockade persists for 60 days and Middle East output permanently drops by 2 million bpd, prices could breach the historical high of $147 seen in 2008.
At the current Brent price of $100, it roughly implies a 30-40% probability of a "deal." In other words, the market believes there is a 60-70% chance that the situation will not fundamentally improve after 5 days. If talks fail, oil prices could see an upside of $30-50.
2015 Took 35 Months
Trump's six core demands include zero uranium enrichment, dismantling nuclear facilities, a 5-year missile development freeze, ending support for proxy militias, recognizing Israel's right to exist, and the physical takeover of Iran's high-enriched uranium stockpile by the U.S. These demands far exceed the 2015 JCPOA framework, which only restricted enrichment levels to 3.65%, kept facilities operational, and did not address missiles and proxy militias.
The 2015 JCPOA, from the secret Oman contacts in July 2012 to the final signing in Vienna, took 35 months. It went through the pragmatic Rouhani administration, the establishment of trust through the Geneva interim agreement, and 20 rounds of direct talks between the P5+1.
Where does the 2026 progress stand? There was an indirect message through Oman on February 6, then war broke out on February 28. Until the pause on March 23, only 45 days had passed, and even the two sides disagree on whether they are negotiating. The mediators are Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan facilitating discussions separately, not the P5+1's multilateral direct talks. The prerequisite for negotiations (both sides acknowledging the talks' existence) has not been met, whereas the 2015 path began with over a year of trust-building through a secret channel before entering open negotiations.
If Talks Fail, What Other Cards Does Trump Have?
The most direct military card. A power plant strike is a 5-day pause's direct target with the lowest threshold to restore the strike. More escalated options include blocking or occupying Kharg Island, which was reported by Al Jazeera to have been under discussion on March 20. Kharg processes 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, about 1.3-1.6 million barrels per day (according to EIA data). As for nuclear facilities, Natanz was damaged in the first week of the war, Fordow's highly enriched uranium remains untransferred since the June 2025 strike (according to FDD analysis), but the new Pickaxe Mountain facility built by Iran under a granite mountain 100 meters from Natanz exceeds the airstrike capability. Currently, the US military has deployed 2 carrier strike groups, over 16 surface vessels, and more than 100 aircraft in the Middle East (according to Military Times), the largest scale since the 2003 Iraq War.
On the economic front, in January, Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. The main targets are China (which accounts for over 90% of Iran's oil trade), as well as India, the UAE, and Turkey. Iran's current oil exports still reach 1.5-1.6 million barrels per day, with daily revenue of about $140 million (according to Defense News data).
Cyber warfare is already underway. According to Foreign Policy, prior to Epic Fury kinetic strikes, the US military's Cyber Command had already launched "non-kinetic effects," paralyzing some of Iran's communication and early warning systems.
But Iran also has counterplay cards. According to the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment, Iran can sustain a 1-6 month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait transports 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily, accounting for 20% of global oil consumption (according to EIA data), while Saudi Arabia and the UAE's pipeline bypass capacity is only 3.5-5.5 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of up to 14.5 million barrels per day. Iran still has about 1,500 ballistic missiles and 200 launchers (according to Israeli military estimates), and Hezbollah has about 25,000 missiles (according to Israeli assessments).
This is the underlying logic of the 5-day window game. Trump faces a credibility trap: if he strikes, oil prices could spiral out of control, putting domestic economy under pressure. If he doesn't strike, the cycle of ultimatums and pauses will further weaken the pricing power of military threats. Iran's dilemma is symmetrical: if they negotiate, the hardliners at home may not agree. If they don't negotiate, the next round of strikes may target power plants and Kharg Island. The deadline on March 28 is not the endpoint but the next turn of this trap.
