SpaceX, after landing on Nasdaq on June 12, saw its stock price return to near the $135 IPO price after over a month. On July 16, intraday, SPCX fell to around $132.24 before bouncing back to trade around $135.
This fall was not just an intraday swing. SpaceX, valued at around $1.77 trillion at IPO, had traded well above the IPO price early on, and now, breaking below that price during trading hours, essentially means the market is taking back some of the initial premium. Investors need to reassess whether SpaceX's valuation should be anchored on long-term space infrastructure or on verifiable revenue, losses, and outstanding shares.
At the time of listing, the market was buying into the scaled Starlink, fully reusable Starship, and the long-term narrative of AI combined with space infrastructure. After breaking below the IPO price, the same narrative persists, but the tolerance has decreased. Now the market is not just questioning the greatness of SpaceX, but also asking how soon these future projects can turn into cash flow.
The Low Float Amplified the Post-Listing Repricing
To understand this round of SpaceX's volatility, one must first look at the low float. A low float refers to a company that has a small number of shares available for public trading, with most shares held by founders, employees, and early investors. The fewer publicly traded shares there are, the easier it is for marginal trades to drive up or down the price.
According to SpaceX's pricing announcement, the company issued 555,555,555 shares of Class A common stock at a price of $135 on June 12, trading under the symbol SPCX. The underwriters also had an additional 83,333,333 shares for overallotment. Considering the offering size, the shares released during the initial listing accounted for a relatively low percentage of the company's total shares outstanding, making the price more akin to a marginal quote in a small pond.
This structure amplifies momentum during uptrends. With labels such as SpaceX, Musk, Starlink, and Starship, a small amount of buying pressure can drive up the stock price. The low float allows the market to focus on trading sentiment and scarcity before gradually returning to fundamentals.
The same mechanism applies during downtrends. Technology growth stocks come under pressure, speculative funds exit, or investors reevaluate valuations, and the limited float makes selling pressure more directly impact prices. Therefore, intraday price drops are not directly equivalent to a fundamental breakdown but more like a repricing after the IPO hype of a low-float stock fades.
Starlink is Grounded in Reality, but Valuation Buys into the Future
SpaceX is not a pure-play concept company. Publicly available data shows that the company is projected to generate around $18.7 billion in revenue by 2025, a year-over-year growth of approximately 33%. Of this, revenue related to Starlink and its connectivity business is around $11.4 billion, with about 10.3 million subscribers. This segment of the business sets SpaceX apart from most aerospace companies as it already has a scalable revenue stream.
However, the $1.77 trillion valuation is not solely based on the current profits from Starlink. This price also factors in assumptions such as Starship reducing launch costs, continued expansion of satellite internet, and the opening of new markets with AI and space infrastructure. Starlink is the foundation, and the market had already priced in multiple layers of future construction into the price.
Therefore, the loss calculus becomes sensitive. Public documents indicate that SpaceX is expected to have a net loss of around $4.9 billion in 2025, with investments in AI/xAI being one of the main drags. In the first quarter of 2026, the operational loss pressure from AI-related business continues.
Such losses should not be simplistically interpreted as a slowdown in core operations but more like the company investing ahead of time for future projects. However, as the stock price returns to near the IPO price, the market will demand a clearer explanation. Questions such as when AI investments will generate revenue, when Starship will significantly lower launch costs, and whether Starlink's growth can offset the consumption of new businesses are shifting from long-term imaginings to current valuation constraints.
Bulls and Skeptics Battle over the Speed of Realization
The bullish case for SpaceX remains clear. The company has launch capabilities, a satellite network, end-users, and brand recognition, which are hard to replicate in the short term. If Starship continues to iterate successfully, Starlink expands its coverage, SpaceX's long-term profit pool could be significantly higher than that of traditional aerospace companies.
Skeptics focus on the other side. The stock price has priced in a significant portion of the future in advance, and the currently verifiable financial data is not sufficient to fully support the high valuation. With the low float, losses, and subsequent unlocking compounded, short-term prices are no longer determined solely by the long-term narrative.
Short selling and sentiment trading may amplify volatility, but they should not be written as the sole reason for the decline. A more reasonable understanding now is that the market is rebalancing three things: long-term space infrastructure speculation, current loss pressure, and future tradable stock supply.
Starship's 13th test flight window is nearing on July 16, which could also be easily used by the market to explain short-term sentiment. This milestone can be seen as a catalytic factor, but cannot be directly attributed as the cause of the stock price drop. If the test flight goes smoothly, it will help restore the execution narrative; if anomalies occur, the market will more closely scrutinize the future assumptions already priced in.
Phased Unlocking Will Test the Issuance Price Support
A key variable near the issuance price is how the circulating supply will change next. SpaceX's lockup arrangement is not the traditional 180-day one-time release, but rather a phased, multi-batch release. Public documents show that Musk's lockup period is longer, and some investors, executives, directors, and other shareholders will gradually unlock in different windows.
This arrangement can reduce the impact of a one-time supply shock but will not eliminate selling pressure. Initially, the proportion of tradable shares at the time of listing is relatively low, and any batch of additional shares available for sale will alter the supply-demand structure. Even if the company's business does not deteriorate, additional supply will make it harder for the stock price to sustain a high premium based solely on the narrative.
Therefore, the vicinity of $135 is not merely a technical support level but a stress test for the market regarding two issues. The company needs to prove through financial reports that Starlink's growth remains strong, and the investments in AI and Starship are still under control. Meanwhile, the market needs to demonstrate through trading volume that the additional stock supply can be absorbed by long-term funds.
If future financial reports show that Starlink continues to expand and the AI loss path can be explained, the vicinity of the issuance price may become a new valuation base after the initial hype of the IPO subsides. If losses continue to widen and internal selling pressure is evident during the unlock window, SpaceX's valuation anchor will continue to shift from long-term speculative space to short-term performance and supply pressure. Intraday price drops are not a conclusion; they only accelerate the validation process.
Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:
Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats
Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App
Official Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia
