Each bull market is different, and only those who continually embrace change can truly shine in a bull market. Therefore, attempting to predict what a bull market is like is very challenging, but I believe there are still clues to follow.

There is still debate about whether the bull market has arrived, but my view is very clear: The bull market has already arrived!

I believe that we are currently in the early stages of a bull market. Following the pattern of past bull markets, there will likely be a 20% or even slightly more pullback ahead; hopefully, this occurs before reaching $90,000 to provide a good buying opportunity for those who missed the initial rise. Before that happens, everyone needs to prepare in advance and not hesitate when the time comes.

I. Why Do I Say the Bull Market Has Arrived?

1. The Cycle Has Not Failed

Many people feel that the halving has had a diminishing impact on the cryptocurrency market, which is true. However, halving is fundamentally an emotional, narrative-driven, consensus-resonating anchor of the cycle.

After the last halving, Bitcoin took a little over a year to rise from over $60,000 to nearly $120,000, only to fall back to just over $60,000 within a year, almost halving in value. The previous bubble has mostly burst, leaving room for a new cycle. The cryptocurrency market is still highly influenced by emotions, consensus, and narratives. The halving signal itself may not bring a significant amount of direct buying pressure, but what matters is that around this point in time, funds and attention will refocus here.

2. Macro and Fundamentals Bullish

The bear market of the past two years essentially resulted from a liquidity crunch; now the direction has reversed. With the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, expectations regarding the Trump administration, recent fiscal actions, essentially, are all implicit rate cuts to stabilize financial assets, "if you won't pour water, I will do it myself."

3. Internal Dynamics and Emotional Resonance in the Cryptocurrency Market

In the past few weeks, cryptocurrency trading volume hit historic lows, with Binance even experiencing an hour-long period with no Bitcoin trades. At the end of a bear market, this means those who wanted to sell have sold, and those who wanted to buy are waiting on the sidelines. In this structure, once a short squeeze or an uptrend occurs, it will trigger an extremely wild market movement.

This is also one of the reasons why I dared to go all-in on BTC when it was over $60,000—this, along with the fact that the overall mining cost is generally around this price level. However, the timing of the uptrend was much earlier than I expected; I thought it would take a few more months.

Looking at this week's trend, the price surged from just over $60,000 to near $80,000. Those who didn't buy in are eager to chase the rise, while those who did are considering leverage. Meanwhile, the short-sellers are desperately fleeing to cover.

During the wildest times in the market, it's often not when everyone is optimistic, but when everyone starts to fear missing out.

II. Can This Sharp Rise Be Sustained?

Firstly, the cyclical pattern of the crypto market has hardly changed, and the external environment also supports this shift. After the hype around external AI concepts and storage modules, with funds hesitant due to repeated sector rotations, concepts like SpaceX are finding it difficult to sustain their rally. The stock market values fundamentals more, and a considerable amount of funds that either made money or didn't in the US stock market and AI are poised to flow into the crypto market as soon as the first clear signal emerges.

Secondly, the signals from the funding side are clear. On-chain data shows that the daily minting volume of USDT and USDC stablecoins has reached levels unseen in recent years, amounting to billions of dollars. Taking a look at the order book depth charts on OKX and Binance, it's now not easy to buy U. Previously, when trying to buy U, there were orders of several million, tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions being filled. Now, the largest sell order is only 200,000 U. U is in a state of emergency—but as long as there are buyers, the increasing price is accompanied by the minting of more U tokens.

Whether looking at it from the funding side or the emotional side, the characteristics of a bull market initiation are very clear. Therefore, I am very optimistic about what follows.

III. How to Position Oneself in This Cycle?

In the past few cycles, we made significant profits using the barbell theory, which means not putting all the funds in one direction: part in a predictable trend, part in high-probability opportunities, and forsaking mediocre opportunities that don't go anywhere.

Firstly, what is the biggest change in this bull market cycle? It lies in the different sources of funding.

In previous bull markets, it was more about retail FOMO entering, a game of dumb money, with the crypto market being seen as low-end, get-rich-quick, and a casino representation. However, since the last cycle, things have changed: whales aren't as easy to shake out, retail investors have become savvier, only dabbling in meme coins, and there are fewer attempts to catch falling knives.

Even though this cycle has just begun, several trends have emerged and will become more distinct:

1. Institutional Fund Dominance

Previously, it was a joke in the crypto community to talk about institutions entering. But it's not the case anymore. Whether it's through the approval of ETFs like BTC, ZEC, etc., or native crypto projects like HYPE, it has begun attracting a significant amount of Wall Street institutions' funds and institutions from mainland China, Hong Kong, and other regions. These are projects they can understand. In the case of China, you could think of it as traditional VCs such as Oriental Harbor and Gaorong Capital embracing the crypto space. However, they won't catch any VC coins, nor focus on meme coins; instead, they will bet on DeFi.

Pay attention to the term "DeFi" mentioned above. Institutions are not just buying into any "hype coin" project. Even if a project experiences significant price growth, it doesn't guarantee institutional interest. They are primarily interested in projects within the DeFi space that can establish a solid position.

DeFi has a background story. Initiatives such as the brilliant laws in the United States, the Clarity Act, the recent ICO framework introduced by the SEC, the 24/6 trading of securities, and the DTCC's comprehensive migration of U.S. stocks to the blockchain are all interconnected and form part of DeFi.

Therefore, this reminds us that during this cycle, we must focus on DeFi-related infrastructure. I have also been following some very small and new projects in this area. They are bringing many traditional financial strategies to the crypto space. The project that successfully implements these strategies, attracts users, and runs their operations smoothly will have a significant opportunity and may even surpass projects like Hyperliquid.

2. Emphasis on Real Value

In the past, many projects in the crypto space conducted token sales similar to stock offerings, but ultimately failed to deliver a product or empower their tokens. This led to chaos, with project teams only focusing on selling off their tokens, leaving retail holders to bear the consequences. This unsustainable approach reached its peak in the last cycle. Even Binance, as a major player in this strategy, felt powerless towards the end of the last cycle. Retail investors were exhausted, leading to a significant migration of users to the stock market. As a result, various trading platforms have started offering stock-related services.

It's not that users suddenly developed a strong interest in stocks; it's more about users being scammed and becoming cautious.

As the crypto space experiences a natural selection process, many projects from the previous cycle will still emerge victorious. These projects generally have revenue streams, token buybacks, token burns, and promising futures. Currently, there are nearly 20 such projects, which will be briefly listed in the following sections.

3. MEME Coins Will Continue to Take Center Stage

After the decline following TRUMP's tweet, MEME coins experienced a phase of consolidation. Those who were involved in the MEME market at that time should have exited. However, now that the bull market is back, it's essential to follow market corrections and pay attention to MEME coins due to underlying logic: Crypto users are inherently speculative, and most people enter the crypto space to make money and achieve wealth effects. Otherwise, they might as well invest in stocks or indices. This user characteristic determines that derivatives and MEME coins will remain mainstream.

Moreover, the eternal allure of speculation, both in MEME coins and derivatives trading, continues to be relevant, as it adheres to the saying "Speculation is as ancient as the hills."

The traditional "listing on Binance" approach may gradually become outdated. In the past (and even now), major MEME projects on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) create a compelling concept, holding 70% to 90% of the chips, waiting to list on Binance spot markets to dump their holdings. However, Binance is not naive and does not wish to be taken advantage of. Most of the time, these projects are only listed on derivatives platforms, allowing users to speculate, rather than being listed on spot markets for users to buy in.

Here, I feel that instead of speculating on specific Meme coins, it's better to focus on their fundamental assets, such as SOL or the Pump platform token. If you're optimistic about MEME on BSC, you can also consider holding BNB directly (I personally prefer HYPE as I believe it represents a future trend and I'm no longer fond of BNB). Although BNB is considered old, its influence is still strong and should not be underestimated in a bull market.

For those with a high-risk appetite, you can pay attention to the Robinhood chain's "PUMP-like platform," where the platform token is called Pons. Both the risk and potential return should be at least 5 times that of PUMP.

Since Robinhood is a new chain, it is recommended to directly download the most popular FOMO platform for MEME trading, which is developed by the DYDX team known for their strong financial experience. Additionally, with US regulatory custody of funds and a non-custodial third-party solution, funds always remain in the user's control. Even if the platform ceases operation, users' funds will not be lost, ensuring security. Moreover, the platform is user-friendly, allowing the purchase of all on-chain assets with any on-chain token, which is quite impressive.

Overall, buying platform tokens for MEME coins is akin to gambling in a casino, but it may be a more stable option compared to buying the MEME coins themselves.

4. VC Coins in a Stalemate

These assets actually pose greater risk than Meme coins. Buying Meme coins early at least offers a high-risk high-return opportunity; whereas, VC coins, if bought in small quantities, hardly yield any profits.

This category mainly consists of various VC coins that rely on shilling, FOMO, and herd behavior to attract naive investors.

The focus for these projects is not on building a solid project but rather on rug pulling. In the majority of projects in the crypto space, such as 90% of the coins listed on Binance Spot, the better ones exit scam after each bull cycle, while the lesser ones dump after listing and continue to offload until the project goes to zero. Comparatively, projects that can sustain continuous activities (rug pulling) are considered decent since users can still engage with the token and there is still some opportunity.

Therefore, VC coins should not be judged solely on their storytelling. My criteria are simple: Are there real users, is there a consistent income stream, and does the team intend to work on the project long-term? If a project fails these three criteria, then regardless of how hyped it is, it's best to stay away.

IV. Focus on Key Projects

This round should prioritize projects with real income generation. I have compiled a table listing some representative projects and provided brief comments on them. Many of these may come as a surprise to everyone, including UNI, which was previously considered purely speculative but has quietly undergone changes. Let's first look at the table (not an exhaustive list, just examples):

The table may look a bit overwhelming, so let me briefly summarize it in text:

· HYPE, this is the most prominent project in the crypto world, representing the pinnacle of the industry. It has high revenue, intense buybacks, a vast ecosystem, strong innovation, rapid iterations, and a very handsome founder. There's not much more to say except that the project has been very steady on the path of on-chain finance infrastructure. The only regret is that the current price is already quite high.

· UNI, which used to be considered a meme coin, now has a buyback mechanism. The recent buyback amount has hit a new high due to the market picking up. However, from a PE standpoint, it is still more expensive than the lofty HYPE. Therefore, it is considered old and unsexy. As the leader in the decentralized exchange (DEX) sector, it is worth keeping an eye on.

· AAVE, no need to say much about this one—it is the top protocol for on-chain lending. When it plummeted to the bottom, including core team members leaving and protocol parameters going awry, I did not dare to buy. However, no matter how bearish the news for a good project, there will always be opportunities. Just like the time HYPE was heavily criticized during the JELLYJEELY incident and dropped to around 10U.

· MORPHO, this project is particularly popular among institutions. During the bear market, top institutions significantly increased their holdings at market price, making it seem like it didn't go through the bear market. It is now more suitable for observation.

· ETHFI, this is an old project that originally focused on staking. However, one admirable aspect of this project is that it chose to do the right and challenging thing, executing a beautiful transition. It now leans more towards the on-chain payment side. In fact, it seems to be the only one issuing coins at the moment, similar to REDDOTPAY. With a valuation of $20 billion during the bear market, it is unlikely to issue coins. Therefore, ETHFI has been listed on Binance and is definitely worth paying attention to in this bull market!

· PENDLE, with a strong team, this project is on a solid upward trajectory in this bull market spiral. No need to say more—it will surely perform well.

· FLUID, this could potentially be an unnoticed gem. Its PE/PS ratios are good, and it has recently weathered many negative events. It's worth tracking, and I already have some holdings in it.

Additionally, there are projects with revenue and buybacks such as JUP and PUMP, but due to space constraints, they are not listed one by one in this article.

Five, Conclusion

After the first strong surge of the bull market, a retracement could happen at any time, with a magnitude of around 20%. A retracement is not a risk but an opportunity for sidelined investors to get on board.

Be prepared for opportunities: know what to buy when the dip comes, how many batches, and how much for each batch. When the time comes, just follow the plan without hesitation.

During the last one or two cycles, our community should recognize my ability to seize opportunities. We have hardly missed any major opportunities. As we set sail on this new journey, we must make another billion!

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