Today, the flagship on-chain token $CASHCAT on Robinhood hit a historic all-time high market cap of $240 million, attracting more and more attention to on-chain trends.

Let's be honest, with BTC and ETH performing so well, even the perennially joked-about big brother has joined the party. By longing ETH and turning a $150,000 principal into $12.72 million in just 3 days, the on-chain trend has gained significant traction, as expected.

Therefore, this article aims to provide a summary analysis of the recent on-chain situation — what stage is the current on-chain trend at? What are the possible reasons for certain developments? Should we be optimistic about the upcoming on-chain trend?

The On-Chain Trend Actually Lags Behind Market Performance

If you have been a consistent on-chain player, you will have noticed a plethora of opportunities since last week. These widespread opportunities include various on-chain "cat" coins experiencing price surges, such as Robinhood's $CASHCAT, Base's $BASECAT, Solana's $CATE, and more. Even some lesser-known on-chains have presented good opportunities, such as Vitalik-backed privacy project $FOLD on the ETH mainnet and the meme coin $egg on HyperEVM.

Opportunities have increased, but it doesn't necessarily mean easy profits, as the mentioned assets are not considered solid investments. In fact, the recent surge is more centered around some relatively "old" assets, rather than explosive new projects. Therefore, the profitability of these opportunities depends on the specific holdings of individual players.

For example, is $MarsCoin on BSC a good asset? Yes, the concept of a US stock meme is good, and being supported on Binance Alpha is positive, but its price performance since last week has not been impressive.

How can we explain why the performance of "old" assets is superior to new listings? I believe this indicates that the on-chain trend is currently still lagging behind the overall market. The surge in BTC and ETH caught almost everyone off guard, and for those looking to invest in new projects, both the sentiment and funds have not sufficiently transitioned. However, for some coins that have always had strong community and financial support, funds may be starting to test the market sentiment with some actions. As a result, these established assets are the ones seeing price hikes.

This lack of concurrence is not only evident in on-chain meme coins but also applies to other altcoins. Hence, while BTC and ETH remain strong, some coins feel like opportunistic exits, some have achieved decent increases but not too extravagant, still far from their all-time highs, resembling more of a test.

The Strongest Narrative Might Be Brewing

If the overall market continues to hold steady, or even exhibit strength, the on-chain activity can't even be said to have "begun" yet. A $80,000 Bitcoin is not considered high, and it still needs to be tested over a longer time horizon.

In the current market environment, optimism about the subsequent on-chain activity mainly stems from the following aspects.

Firstly, meme coins in the current stage have been repositioned. During the $DOGE, $SHIB era, meme coins were a novel in-group narrative, similar to NFTs like CryptoPunks. Initially, no one understood why these assets were skyrocketing in value, and it was only after they had surged to new heights that everyone grasped the concept. Moving on to the pump.fun era, meme coins underwent significant changes in asset issuance and trading models. The innovative underlying gameplay allowed everyone to profit from chasing attention.

Now, both exchanges and public chains are beginning to realize that meme coins are the asset category most capable of attracting user growth. As Solana's CPO Vibhu stated, "meme coins are the best and only mainstream attraction in the crypto world, creating the majority of cryptocurrency revenue."

Although under regulatory compliance, public chains and exchanges aim to expand their businesses by moving traditional finance onto the blockchain, to grow their business, popularity must come first. In this context, meme coins, which have already become a stable sector in the crypto world, have become a segment that no platform can ignore.

The days of slow progress are in the past; creating a large meme coin used to take a long time because the meme coin industry was not mature enough. That has all changed now.

Secondly, meme coins have never received such positive affirmation, especially after the emergence of meme stocks in the U.S. Robinhood CEO Vlad recently mentioned and commended meme stocks on The Iced Coffee Hour podcast, saying that "if you hold a meme coin, you can receive a tokenized airdrop of meme stocks. This unique gameplay intertwines meme coins and meme stocks, creating a unique asset category that we had never considered before."

Vlad also mentioned that before Robinhood's emergence, around 50% of American households owned stocks. Robinhood raised this percentage to about 65%. Next, tokenization is the key means to push the ownership rate to 95% and make U.S. blue-chip stocks and other RWA assets more easily globally distributed.

Although Vlad did not say he would rely on the US stock market meme to increase the ownership ratio to 95%, it still upgraded the narrative of the US stock market meme—a hybrid asset with higher acceptance among the youth, allowing everyone to play and have exposure to US stock assets. Even now, there are many on-chain players who have never traded US stocks because trading meme coins has given them exposure to the stock market.

When asked about his views on the US stock market meme, CZ also gave a quite positive assessment, stating, "The US stock market meme is a novel and interesting gameplay, but it is necessary to ensure that the issuer can indeed fulfill its obligations."

A track that has been affirmed by both Vlad and CZ has not yet produced a target with a market cap of over a billion, leaving too many possibilities open.

Finally, CZ paid attention to Vlad yesterday, and Vlad commented on a Mars-related tweet by Musk yesterday, ending the comment with "See you on Mars." This action has given us a huge space for imagination—if next, Binance and Robinhood open listing channels for each other, with Binance listing $CASHCAT and Robinhood listing $MarsCoin?

Following Trump Coin, the strongest storyline may be brewing. After more than a year of bear market torture, the market is no longer lacking good targets. Whether it's the community, narrative, or surviving tokens, they have all undergone sufficient tests and only lack a spark to ignite.

This round of the altcoin season will see huge changes compared to the past. We can see the changes in the meme coin aspect, but there are still many changes that cannot be anticipated and captured. It is this uncertainty that makes me hold a high degree of optimism for the future market—regardless of the several rounds of bull markets over the years, whether we succeed or fail, this time, we may soon find ourselves back at the starting line of a golden age once again.

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