Trump lied again, this time to save the crumbling risk market and suppress the rising oil price (inflation). This time, he gave a "five-day" deadline.

Early on March 23rd Eastern Time, Trump announced on Truth Social that he had instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to "suspend military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for 'five days'," citing "very good and productive dialogue" between the U.S. and Iran over the past two days, moving towards a direction of "complete and thorough resolution" of hostilities.

The market immediately reacted: spot gold surged over $100 in a short period, breaking $4400/ounce; S&P 500 index futures soared 1.9%, Dow futures rose 1.85%; Bitcoin surpassed $71,000, rebounding 3.81% in an hour; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield plummeted by 8.4 basis points. The oil market, however, took a heavy hit as Brent crude briefly fell below $90.

However, less than an hour after Trump's tweet was posted, Iran's official news agency, Tasnim News Agency, poured cold water on the situation—an Iranian senior security official stated that Trump's remarks were nothing but "psychological warfare," as Iran has not engaged in any negotiations to date and there are currently no negotiations happening.

This scene is strikingly similar to what happened two weeks ago. Back then, Trump claimed that "the war has ended completely," also triggering a brief stock market rebound and oil price drop. Same formula, same taste.

The market trades not peace, but Trump's bottom line

Knowing well that Iran quickly denied the statement, why did Wall Street still choose to "buy in"?

The answer is not peace, but rather the market's profound understanding of Trump's behavior pattern. Investors interpreted this statement as a signal: the president's aversion to market declines will ultimately prevent him from fulfilling those most extreme threats.

Since the start of this war three weeks ago, the global economy has been under pressure. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off critical energy supplies, soaring energy prices have brought new inflationary shocks, and the global bond market has evaporated trillions of dollars. Tom Garretson of RBC Wealth Management bluntly stated, "Trump has obviously been trying to suppress oil prices, but perhaps once again it is the bond market forcing him to change his stance."

BCA Research's Chief Strategist Marko Papic's assessment is more straightforward: "If this is not resolved in the next 7 to 10 days, we will face a major global economic shutdown. Today's statement indicates that Trump realizes the real economy could fall off a cliff."

「TACO Trade」 Redux: Precision Hunt of Bulls and Bears

Trump's statement sparked a fierce shakeout of both longs and shorts in the crypto market.

According to Coinglass data, within one hour of the announcement, a total of $359 million was liquidated across the network, with $264 million coming from short positions. Trader James Wynn saw his BTC short position liquidated in the past two days. Meanwhile, the previously attention-grabbing "buddy" who had been "all in" added an emergency ETH long position of $2.42 million during the rapid market upswing.

Even more dramatically, amidst this volatility, a long position in Brent crude oil on Trade.xyz was also liquidated—indicating that the market was not just one-way bullish but was swinging back and forth between Trump's "ceasefire" message and Iran's "denial."

The Rashomon Negotiation Truth

The "dialogue" between Trump and Iran has turned into a real-life version of Rashomon.

Trump claimed in a Fox News interview that the dialogue with Iran took place "last night" and stated he was "not sure what the Iranian media is talking about." He later revealed that the dialogue was with a "top Iranian leader," but not the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Israeli media provided more details. According to Axios, U.S. envoys Votel and Kushner spoke with Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf, and the two sides may hold talks later this week in Islamabad, Pakistan, with Pence potentially representing the U.S. side.

However, Iran has repeatedly denied these claims. Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf personally clarified: "There has been no negotiation with the U.S." The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Trump's remarks were aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for its military plans.

Polymarket's Precise Bet and Insider Trading Suspicions

Moments before Trump's tweet, abnormal trading activity was observed on the prediction market platform Polymarket.

Ten recently created accounts made significant bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by either March 31 or April 15, totaling around $160,000. If a ceasefire happens by the end of the month, these accounts stand to profit over $1 million. Following Trump's tweet, these accounts are already up over $300,000.

What is even more alarming is that one of the accounts had previously placed a bet on a U.S. strike against Iran, profiting over $85,000. The size of the bet, timing, and past record have raised suspicions among observers as to whether the account holder is an insider with undisclosed diplomatic information.

Meanwhile, about 15 minutes before Trump's tweet, both S&P 500 E-mini futures and WTI crude oil futures experienced isolated abnormal volume surges, with no clear catalyst in the market at that time. Anyone who bought stock futures and shorted oil futures at that moment could make significant profits within minutes.

Polymarket announced on Monday that it is upgrading its insider trading rules, explicitly prohibiting trading based on stolen confidential information or illegal insider tips. However, both the SEC and CME Group have declined to comment.

Iran's "Surprise" and Goldman Sachs' Warning

In the face of Trump's "psychological warfare," Iran did not back down.

According to a source in the Iranian military, Iran has prepared a new "surprise" for the coming days, which may have a "significant effect." The source stated that Trump is well aware that its ammunition is in a "very poor state" and that he cannot achieve a military victory or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so he has resorted to verbal attacks. He reminded Trump: "He should temporarily put down his phone and social media and focus on the sky, the stock market, and oil prices."

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has released its latest forecast, raising the probability of the U.S. economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months to 30%, up 5 percentage points from previous expectations. The bank expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and December, and forecasts that the U.S. GDP's annual growth rate in the second half of this year will drop to between 1.25% and 1.75%.

The New Normal for the Market: Gasping Amid Fluctuations

Trump's unpredictability is becoming a "stabilizer" for the market—it not only prevents the bulls from aggressively chasing gains but also keeps the bears from letting go of their shorts.

Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, perhaps put it most accurately: "The truth depends on people's perceptions, and Trump's unpredictability only exacerbates uncertainty, which helps prevent the originally confident bears from further depressing the market. All of this unpredictability buys time for the market and prevents overconfidence from emerging—whether good or bad."

At least for Trump and Wall Street, in a situation where the entire nation is overwhelmingly bearish, harvesting a market wave to trigger a short squeeze, while also slightly suppressing oil prices, seems worthwhile from any perspective.

However, a warning from Mizuho Bank strategist Jordan Rochester is also worth noting: "The hardest part is not predicting the course of the war, but predicting the White House's communication style and how the market will react to it. We are facing a confused market, unsure whether this is a reliable signal of an impending endgame or another performance of 'almost there.'"

Israeli officials have revealed that Washington has set April 9 as the target date to end the war, meaning there is about 21 days left. Trump himself has acknowledged: "If the plan works, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon."

Five days later, the market will once again face Trump's "final deadline"—will this be a true endgame, or another round of starting over?