“Musk for President?” Polymarket traders just can't resist betting on this.
Last month, Polymarket hosted a "war room" event at a bar in Washington, D.C., where visitors could see real-time market odds. (Théo Marie-Courtois / AFP via Getty Images)
The winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election is now a hot prediction market on Polymarket. Event contracts related to the three frontrunners – JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, and Marco Rubio – have accumulated a total trading volume of $35 million. However, Polymarket traders seem to prefer betting on those "underdog candidates," including some individuals explicitly prohibited by the Constitution from becoming president.
CEO Elon Musk has attracted $23 million in bets on the 2028 election market at Polymarket; transactions related to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani have also reached $18 million. Both are not natural-born U.S. citizens and are therefore ineligible to be sworn in as president. The winning probabilities given by Polymarket are less than 1%, reflecting the legal restrictions, but their significantly higher-than-average trading volumes do not indicate this.
According to Barron's analysis of publicly available Polymarket data, presidential candidates with less than a 1% chance of winning have generated a total trading volume of around $386 million. These "super long shot" bets account for more than two-thirds of the total trading volume related to the 2028 election.
It is still unclear why traders are willing to spend money on these extremely disadvantaged candidates, or even individuals who are not eligible to run. This phenomenon also appears to contradict Polymarket CEO and founder Shayne Coplan's public statements about the platform's purpose. He has referred to his platform as the "global truth machine" in the election space.
In the 2028 election market, the most crowded transaction actually belonged to basketball superstar LeBron James. The transaction associated with him amounted to $48 million, accounting for 9% of the total market volume. The second-highest transaction volume was from the current Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, who has already signaled his exit from elective politics. In third place was Kim Kardashian, with a transaction amount of $34 million.
Polymarket's transaction volume is highly concentrated on non-traditional candidates, some of whom may not even be eligible to run for president.
In multiple markets, Polymarket transactions are significantly skewed towards "longshot players." In markets related to the 2028 presidential election, the upcoming World Cup, and the NBA championship, candidates or teams with less than a 1% chance of winning accounted for approximately 70% of the total transaction volume.
When asked why "longshot bets" on the platform are so popular, Polymarket declined to comment.
Some Polymarket traders interviewed by Barron's offered an explanation: Polymarket is expected to mint and distribute a cryptocurrency token to users at some point this year. These traders speculate that the amount of tokens users ultimately receive may be related to overall transaction activity. Therefore, placing a small amount of money on an almost impossible outcome like "Kardashian for President" can also help increase this metric.
Up to 70% of the transaction volume on Polymarket is placed on competitors with less than a 1% chance of winning.
Regarding the upcoming token launch, Polymarket has already confirmed on the platform. "There will be a token, and there will be an airdrop," said Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber in a podcast interview in October. However, to date, Polymarket has not specified how the tokens will be distributed, and the company has declined to provide further clarification.
Polymarket's preference for "longshot players" appears to be an outlier in the world of prediction markets. On its competitor Kalshi, the transaction volume in the presidential election winner market is clearly concentrated on popular candidates.
In Kalshi's presidential election market, transactions betting on Marco Rubio account for 10.6% of the total volume; whereas on Polymarket, this percentage is only 1.7%. Tim Walz's transactions on Kalshi represent only 0.7% of the volume, but on Polymarket, it reaches 7.4%. As for James, Kardashian, and Michelle Obama, the transaction volume leaders on Polymarket, they do not appear in Kalshi's market at all.
