The weekend market was dominated by a strong risk-on sentiment.
All major indices rallied, with the technology and precious metals sectors posting significant gains; the energy sector suffered heavy losses (CL -1.79%, Brent -1.23%, NATGAS -0.7%), a direct reflection of the "war is over" narrative.
Crude Oil & Stock Indices
At 07:31 on June 14, Fars News Agency quoted a source close to the negotiation team as saying that Iran had not made a final decision on the proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Oil prices then rose to 82.6.
Later at 19:51 on the same day, YNET further reported that Trump might be willing to immediately lift the maritime blockade on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, rather than gradually as currently agreed.
At 21:30, a decisive moment arrived. Trump messaged on Truth Terminal stating, "The agreement with Iran has been finalized," "Authorization to immediately lift the U.S. maritime blockade," and "Authorization for toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz." In parallel, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced an immediate and permanent halt to military operations on multiple fronts (including Lebanon) starting that night.
It is worth noting that at this point, the price of crude oil had already fallen to TradeXYZ's weekend price boundary, indicating the market had "priced in" this news.
The S&P 500 index then reached $7530.
Prior to the official signing of the peace agreement (on the 19th), the market will likely have to endure a waiting period.
Precious Metals
Simultaneous with the 21:30 agreement announcement, gold surged from around 4,221 to a high of 4,337, and silver rose from around 67.85 to 70.83, then stabilized at the highs.
Stocks / ETFs
Several individual stocks such as NBIS, RKLB, and LITE showed strong performance over the weekend.
NBIS: Included in the Nasdaq index on June 12; Compass Point raised target price citing strong growth in AI cloud business—Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million, a YoY increase of 683.9%.
RKLB: Also added to the Nasdaq index on June 12, boosted by SpaceX valuation enthusiasm.
LITE: JPMorgan gave a target price of $1,130 in a report on June 11.
SPCX showed strong performance as well, with Musk stating in a weekend tweet reply, "I think SpaceX could maybe generate around $1 trillion in revenue by 2030," leading to a 0.56% surge in SPCX on TradeXYZ within minutes.
Overall, the market is beginning to recover from the impact of the three-month-long war, with the agreement scheduled to be signed only on June 19, with Israel's actions being the biggest variable during this period.
This Wednesday, Warsh's Fed debut and expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan will also have a significant impact on the market.
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